Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Violent Conflict and Fatality in Nigeria
A Point Process Modeling with SPDE Approach
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6170182 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Osafu Augustine Egbon (0000-0002-5890-7954, Universidade de São Paulo), Ezra Gayawan (0000-0001-7702-4586, Federal University of Technology) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 63-86 |
| Publication date | 2025-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Statistics Politics and Policy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2151-7509 • E-ISSN: 2194-6299 |
| Publisher | De Gruyter (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1515/spp-2024-0028 |
| OpenAlex | W4408687113 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 47 |
For many decades, Nigeria has been plagued by a consistently high rate of violent events, resulting in countless fatalities and the displacement of citizens. This study aimed to model the spatio-temporal patterns of these events and the associated fatality to gain insight into the chain of events and provide a basis for swift and strategic intervention. To this end, a Cox point process model through the stochastic partial differential equation was adopted, taking into account the location randomness exhibited by violent events occurrence. The data analyzed was derived from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program – Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP-GED) version 22. The results revealed that violent events are particularly prevalent in the country’s northeast region, with a probability of 0.42 of at least one death occurring per violent event. These findings suggest a need for urgent intervention through informed policymaking, impeding the influx of illegal arms and ammunition in porous borders, and strategically tackling poverty
Case fatality rate · Econometrics · Economics · Environmental health · Point (geometry · Population · Process (computing · Computer Science · Mathematics · Medicine · Point processes and geometric inequalities · Psychology · Soil Geostatistics and Mapping · Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
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Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime
An Explicit Link between Gaussian Fields and Gaussian Markov Random Fields
Determinants of the risk perception of farmer–herder conflicts
Changes in agricultural and grazing land, and insights for mitigating farmer-herder conflict in West Africa
The Economy of Conflict in the Oil Rich Niger Delta Region of Nigeria
Spatial pattern of climate change and farmer–herder conflict vulnerabilities in Nigeria
Race to the bottom
Networks of Violence
[W]hat Lies Beneath
A Closer Look at Reporting Bias in Conflict Event Data
Network Competition and Civilian Targeting during Civil Conflict
Oil Exploitation and Conflict in the Niger-Delta Region of Nigeria
Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset
Spatial patterns of communal violence in sub-Saharan Africa
Political Elites and the Rise of the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria
Crime statistics in a Nigerian Traditional City
The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |