Filling in the Blanks
A New Method for Estimating Campaign Effects
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6227656 |
|---|---|
| Authors | John G Geer (Vanderbilt University), John Geer, Richard R Lau (0000-0002-5412-8777, Rutgers Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights) |
| Year | 2006 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 269-290 |
| Publication date | 2006-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | British Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-1234 • E-ISSN: 1469-2112 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0007123406000159 |
| OpenAlex | W2058017131 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 19 |
| References cited | 1 |
Scholars have invested a great deal of effort in trying to estimate the impact of political campaigns on the public. While progress has been made, one fundamental problem continues to plague our attempts to study campaigns: the lack of good, detailed data about the behaviour of candidates. In the United States, for instance, the presidential battle is a national struggle that unfolds locally on the stages of fifty states, yet most data collection efforts have treated presidential elections as if they were national contests, conducted (implicitly) in an identical manner across the entire country. Using available (national) data as a baseline and theory to predict plausible variations from that baseline, the authors devise a method for simulating variation in presidential campaigns across states and over election years—one of the crucial missing pieces of the puzzle. Their method generates a range of plausible effects, which is often narrow enough to shed light on important hypotheses. It can be employed whenever data are available at a more aggregate level than is desirable. This method is then applied to assess the debate over the impact of attack advertising on turnout. This approach suggests that campaign negativism stimulated (rather than demobilized) turnout in presidential elections from 1980 through 2000
Aggregate data · Baseline (sea · Battle · Geography · National election · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential campaign · Presidential system · Public relations · Sociology · Statistics · Turnout · Variation (astronomy · Voting · Advanced Causal Inference Techniques · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Mathematics · Media Influence and Politics
Mobilizer, demobilizer–or artefact? Measuring the influence of research designs on the direct effect of negative advertising on voter turnout in U.S. election campaigns
Optimising Emotions, Incubating Falsehoods
Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization
Going positive
The Americanization of British party advertising? Negativity in party election broadcasts, 1964–2005
Tone Versus Information
The Resilient Voter
The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns
What To Do About Atheoretic Lags
Who Advocates? Determinants of Political Advocacy in Presidential Election Years
From Incivility to Outrage
Negative Advertising and the Dynamics of Candidate Support
Elements of Negativity
Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging
Bayesian Model Averaging
Who will attack the competitors? How political parties resolve strategic and collective action dilemmas in negative campaigning
Negative Campaigning
Beyond Negativity
The mobilizing and demobilizing effects of political TV ads
| Unique citing works | 19 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,95 |
| Citation span | 2006 - 2025 (20) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 19 |