Measuring the Median
The Risks of Inferring Beliefs from Votes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6228024 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Paul Warwick (0000-0001-7792-6475, Simon Fraser University), Maria Zakharova (0000-0002-1072-9968) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 43 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 157-175 |
| Publication date | 2013-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | British Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-1234 • E-ISSN: 1469-2112 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0007123412000269 |
| OpenAlex | W2097128903 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 18 |
| References cited | 30 |
A large number of studies of ideological congruence, and of the effect of public opinion on policy outcomes more generally, have relied on the Kim-Fording (KF) measure of median voter opinion. This measure has the great virtue of being readily calculable – no direct measurement of voter opinion is required – but it rests on assumptions concerning party locations and voter behaviour that are unquestionably incorrect, at least some of the time. This article explores the sensitivity of the KF measure to violations of its core assumptions through simulation experiments. It then uses public opinion data to assess the degree to which consequential levels of violation occur in actual democratic systems. The article concludes with a discussion of what the KF median really measures and where it can – and cannot – be safely used
Actuarial science · Congruence (geometry · Core (optical fiber · Data mining · Democracy · Econometrics · Economics · Ideology · Measure (data warehouse · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Public opinion · Virtue · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies · Psychology · Social Media and Politics · Social Psychology
Electoral Systems and Citizen-Elite Ideological Congruence
Geopolitics and Democracy
Die Höhe der Beamtenbesoldung in den Ländern. Der Versuch einer Erklärung
Public Opinion, Turnout and Social Policy
Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981–2016
Ideological congruence over government mandates under majoritarian and proportional representation electoral systems
Electoral Systems and Opinion Representation
Public Opinion and Policy Representation
Party responsiveness to public opinion and party supporters
Jettisoning Illusions About the Median Mandate
The Ideological Congruence Illusion
Ideological Congruence
Assessing the complex relationship between government alternation and ideological congruence
Government Responsiveness under Majoritarian and (within) Proportional Electoral Systems
Public opinion and government policy inBritain
Ideological Congruence and Citizen Satisfaction
When Parties Move to the Middle
Explaining citizen perceptions of party ideological positions
Mapping Policy Preferences ii
Elections, Parties, Democracy
Why Small, Centrist Third Parties Motivate Policy Divergence by Major Parties
The Theory of Committees and Elections
Patterns of democracy
Valence and electoral outcomes in Western Europe, 1976–1998
Election Laws, Disproportionality and Median Correspondence
Policy Adjustment by Parties in Response to Rival Parties’ Policy Shifts
Congruence between Citizens and Policymakers in Two Visions of Liberal Democracy
The Neglected Role of the Status Quo in Models of Issue Voting
Moderate Now, Win Votes Later
Representation and Policy Responsiveness
Experts’ Political Preferences and Their Impact on Ideological Bias
Voter ideology in Western democracies
Voter ideology in western democracies, 1946–1989
Bilateralism or the median mandate? An examination of rival perspectives on democratic governance
The Ideological Congruence Controversy
The Politics of Inequality
Ideological Congruence and Electoral Institutions
The Economy and Policy Mood
The Electoral Sweet Spot
Government Intentions and Citizen Preferences in Dynamic Perspective
Election Laws and Representative Governments
Electoral Systems, Party Systems, and Ideological Representation
The median voter data set
When Moderate Voters Prefer Extreme Parties
Coalition-directed Voting in Multiparty Democracies
A Directional Theory of Issue Voting
| Unique citing works | 18 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,64 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2023 (9) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 18 |