A Dynamic Comparative Analysis of Presidential and House Elections

Bibliographic Data

ID6230019
AuthorsRichard P Y Li (corresponding author)
Year1976
Volume20
Issue4
Pages671
Publication date1976-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907
PublisherJSTOR (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/2110566
OpenAlexW2317465246
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited12

This paper attempts a longitudinal comparison of the presidential and the on-year and off-year House elections. Five propositions regarding structural differentiation are tested by fitting a cyclical autoregressive-moving-average model to each of the electoral time series and then comparing their estimated coefficients. The results reveal several general patterns: (1) The House elections contain a more stable basic trend than the presidential elections (largely due to the predominant impact of party and incumbency in House elections). (2) The presidential elections, in contrast, are more responsive to short-term effects than the House elections. (3) The presidential electoral realighnments appear stronger than House realignments. (4) The off-year House elections contain a more stable basic trend than the on-year House elections. (5) The on-year House elections, in contrast, are more responsive to short-term disturbances than off-year elections, mostly as a result of presidential coattail effect

Contrast (vision · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · General election · House of Representatives · Physics · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Term (time · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Media Influence and Politics

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