Modeling Government Popularity in Postwar Britain

A Methodological Example

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6231898
AutoresSimon Price (0000-0001-6963-4800), David Sanders (0000-0003-1266-9361)
Ano1993
Volume37
Fascículo1
Páginas317
Data de publicação1993-02-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessNão
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoAmerican Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0092-5853 • E-ISSN: 1540-5907
EditoraJSTOR (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/2111534
OpenAlexW2325313682
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas34
Referências citadas16

Economic theory suggests that government popularity may be related to the rate of change of (nonstationary) economic quantities and the level of (stationary) financial variables (like inflation or interest rates). Political theory suggests that this relationship may not be stable over time. We find that there is a well-defined relationship between U.K. government popularity in the postwar period and a small set of economic variables (i.e., unemployment, inflation, and real interest rates). Unusual political events are also important. Voters appear to discount history at a high rate. Remarkably, the estimated equation is very stable and passes a battery of stability tests, including postsample parameter stability tests. Furthermore, estimation using the Kalman filter shows no tendency for the parameters to vary systematically over time, implying that voter preferences have remained broadly constant throughout the postwar years

Constant (computer programming · Econometrics · Economics · Government (linguistics · Inflation (cosmology · Inflation rate · Interest rate · Kalman filter · Keynesian economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Stability (learning theory · Statistics · Unemployment · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Housing Market and Economics · Law · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact