Voting swings and seat changes
A stochastic model
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6235030 |
|---|---|
| Authors | David Charnock (Curtin University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1993 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 340-346 |
| Publication date | 1993-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Australian Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1036-1146 • E-ISSN: 1363-030X |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00323269308402245 |
| OpenAlex | W2070062609 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 11 |
The usual method for analysing the relationship between net seat changes and net voting swings has been Mackerras's pendulum, which is based on the assumption of uniform swing. This paper argues that the probabilistic concepts which underlie the relationship have not been clearly recognised in the past, and proposes a simple stochastic model for net swings. The pendulum‐uniform swing model is a special case of this model. A mathematical analysis is given of the implications of the model for the relationship between swing and seat changes. As well as showing how net seat changes can be predicted from net voting swing, the analysis demonstrates that quite large fluctuations in net seat changes can result from random variation alone
Econometrics · Economics · Net (polyhedron · Political science · Probabilistic logic · Statistics · Stochastic modelling · Swing · Voting · Computer Science · Engineering · Law · Mathematics · Transport and Economic Policies · Artificial Intelligence
Seats, Votes, and the Spatial Organization of Elections
Forward to the past
A comment on Malcolm mackerras
Uniform seing revisited
Swing and the two party preferred vote
On Elaine Thompson and Tom wheelwright
Rejoinder to Campbell Sharman
Two‐party preferred’
On elections, voting and participation
Variability and uniformity
Uniformity in Australian electoral patterns
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,09 |
| Citation span | 1994 - 2001 (8) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |