The Trouble With Experts
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6252008 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Paul J Quirk (0009-0003-3483-5057, University of British Columbia, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 22 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 449-465 |
| Publication date | 2010-12-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Critical Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0891-3811 • E-ISSN: 1933-8007 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/08913811.2010.541699 |
| OpenAlex | W2066347686 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 12 |
In his justly celebrated Expert Political Judgment, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the judgment of economic and political experts by rigorously testing their ability to make accurate predictions. He finds that ability profoundly limited, implying that expert judgment is virtually useless, if not worse. He concludes by proposing a project that would seek to improve experts' performance by holding them publicly accountable for their claims. But Tetlock's methods severely underestimate the value of expert opinion. Despite their notorious disagreements, experts have highly pertinent information and advice in many areas of public policy. The main problem with experts is that political actors seize on their most extreme views in one direction or the other, and overlook their areas of general agreement and the core of relatively reliable information that they provide
Advice (programming · Core (optical fiber · Economics · Expert opinion · Law and economics · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Public opinion · Public relations · Sociology · Value (mathematics · Computer Science · Economic Theory and Institutions · Law
The Market Approach to Education
Minimum Wages
The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments
Clinical versus mechanical prediction
The Foreign Policy Disconnect
The Three Trillion Dollar War
Politics, Markets and America's Schools
The Myth of the Rational Voter
Have the Experts Been Weighed, Measured, and Found Wanting
The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of the Economics Profession
Political Appointments, Civil Service Systems, and Bureaucratic Competence
| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0.31 |
| Citation span | 2010 - 2021 (12) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |