An Inefficient Truth
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6252079 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Charles W Collier (University of Florida, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue | 1-2 |
| Pages | 29-71 |
| Publication date | 2011-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Critical Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0891-3811 • E-ISSN: 1933-8007 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/08913811.2011.574469 |
| OpenAlex | W2060514690 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 44 |
The Efficient Market Hypothesis often seems to suggest only that most people cannot outguess the financial markets. But the originator of the hypothesis, Eugene Fama, made the stronger claim that people cannot outguess the financial markets because financial-market prices are correct: They incorporate all known information accurately. This view omits the role that human traders' interpretations of information must play if the information is to prompt them to buy or sell. Buyers and sellers disagree about the meaning of current information, so at least half of them must be wrong. Bringing in many more (but equally fallible) people to predict the future does not somehow make their (collective) answer "right." This is a logical disproof of the Fama hypothesis, but the inherently speculative nature of financial markets makes its empirical falsification (or verification) ambiguous if not impossible. The hypothesis must therefore be considered an unscientific article of faith
Economics · Efficient-market hypothesis · Empirical evidence · Empirical research · Epistemology · Faith · Financial economics · Financial market · Meaning (existential · Positive economics · Stock market · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Financial Markets and Investment Strategies · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Philosophy · Finance
The general theory of employment, interest, and money
Wayward Puritans
Essays in positive economics
The Rise of Financial Capitalism
The Econometrics of Financial Markets
Manias, Panics and Crashes
Alternative Approaches to the Theory of Choice in Risk-Taking Situations
The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions
The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices
The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices
An Engine, Not a Camera
The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
Richard Cantillon
The theory of decision making
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,13 |
| Citation span | 2018 - 2018 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |