Planned fiscal adjustments
Do governments fulfil their commitments
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6261801 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sanjeev Gupta (0000-0002-9660-6597, Center for Global Development), João T Jalles (0000-0002-7171-5076, International Monetary Fund, corresponding author), Carlos Mulas-Granados (International Monetary Fund), Carlos Mulas‐granado (0000-0002-8425-570X, International Monetary Fund), Michela Schena (International Monetary Fund) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 383-407 |
| Publication date | 2018-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | European Union Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1465-1165 • E-ISSN: 1741-2757 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1465116518778807 |
| OpenAlex | W4251165724 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 47 |
This article analyzes the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978–2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3% of gross domestic product per year or 1.1% of gross domestic product during an average fiscal adjustment episode). Both economic and political factors explain the gaps: for example, greater electoral proximity, stronger political cohesion and higher accountability were all associated with smaller promise gaps. Finally, governments that delivered on their fiscal consolidation plans were rewarded by financial markets and not penalized by voters
Accountability · Consolidation (business · Economic policy · Economics · Fiscal policy · Fiscal union · Gross domestic product · International economics · Macroeconomics · Political science · Politics · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Local Government Finance and Decentralization · Accounting
Planning or Propaganda? An Evaluation of Germany's Medium-term Budgetary Planning
Policy, Office, or Votes?
Dynamic Econometrics
Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships
Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
Growth Dynamics
Partisan politics
Voters as Fiscal Conservatives
Fragmented fiscal policy
Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes
How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries
Political Control of the Economy
Fragmented Government Effects on Fiscal Policy
Do political variables affect fiscal policy adjustment decisions? New empirical evidence
Political budget cycles and election outcomes
The euro area's common default risk
Fiscal Policy and the Democratic Process in the European Union
Democracy, Accountability, and Representation
Adjusting to the EMU
Voting against Spending Cuts
Fiscal consolidation under electoral risk
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,8 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2025 (5) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |