A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients
The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6282939 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mario Larch (0000-0001-9355-2004, University of Bayreuth Bayreuth), Aiko F Schmeißer (0000-0002-1647-2067, University of Göttingen Göttingen), Joschka Wanner (0000-0001-9090-545X, University of Bayreuth Bayreuth, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 59 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 242-260 |
| Publication date | 2021-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0021-9886 • E-ISSN: 1468-5965 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/jcms.13058 |
| OpenAlex | W2924823465 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 24 |
In view of the deferred start of negotiations for the modernization of the customs union between the EU and Turkey (CU‐EUT), we looked back and analysed the ex post trade consequences of the CU‐EUT. Employing up‐to‐date econometric best practices for regional integration agreements, we quantified both the total and the heterogeneous trade effects of the CU‐EUT. In contrast with most previous studies, our results indicate that the CU‐EUT made a significantly positive, large and robust impact, implying there was an additional increase in EU‐Turkey trade in manufacturing by 55–65 per cent compared with that during the previously active Ankara Agreement. We also provide evidence that the CU‐EUT significantly increased Turkey's trade with non‐member countries of the CU‐EUT. Additionally, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU‐EUT effect was found across different industries as well as for each of its member countries and the direction of trade. We linked the heterogeneity of up to 911 coefficient estimates to the differences in initial trade costs and show that it cannot be ascribed to reductions in bilateral tariff rates
Business · Customs union · Economic integration · Economics · European union · International economics · International free trade agreement · International trade · Negotiation · Political science · Tariff · Trade diversion · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · Global trade and economics
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The Gravity Model
Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships
On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements
Estimating Trade Flows
Gravity with Gravitas
The Log of Gravity
Heterogeneous effects of economic integration agreements
The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU
Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade
| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2026 (4) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |