HIV/Aids, Life Expectancy, and the Opportunity Cost Model of Civil War

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6283344
AutoresTyler Kustra (0000-0001-6465-8184, New York University, autor correspondente)
Ano2017
Volume61
Fascículo10
Páginas2130-2157
Data de publicação2017-11-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002716628281
OpenAlexW3123692559
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas8
Referências citadas44

This article views death in battle as an opportunity cost whose size is determined by the number of years a rebel would have lived as a civilian. As civilian life expectancy declines, this opportunity cost does too, increasing the probability of rebellion. This theory is tested with a tragic natural experiment: the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Using male circumcision rates as an instrument for life expectancy, the analysis shows that a one-year increase in life expectancy decreases the probability of civil war by 2.6 percentage points. This supports the theory that opportunity costs are important determinants of conflict onset and that nonpecuniary opportunity costs should be taken into account. This article concludes by noting that cost–benefit analyses of public health interventions should include decreases in the probability of civil war, and the attendant benefits in terms of lives saved and material damage prevented, in their calculations

Battle · Economics · Expectancy theory · Geography · Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV · Life expectancy · Opportunity cost · Political science · Population · Psychiatry · Psychological intervention · Public health · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Agricultural risk and resilience · Demography · Health and Conflict Studies · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology · Virology