Turning the Tables

Military Intervention and the Onset of Negotiations in Civil War

Bibliographic Data

ID6283367
AuthorsRebecca Dudley (0000-0001-7411-5757, Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume68
Issue6
Pages1139-1167
Publication date2024-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00220027231190915
OpenAlexW4385265711
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited48

When do negotiations occur in civil war? How does military intervention alter this process? While the existing literature presents models of the onset of negotiations – both mediated and unassisted – they are incomplete if they do not consider third-party states involved in the conflict prior to negotiations. I argue that military intervention impacts negotiation onset by adjusting barriers to negotiation through three pathways: the likelihood of military victory, the risk of signaling weakness, and the presence of additional veto players. I examine these mechanisms using logistic random effects models on a dataset of African civil wars. An extension of the argument addresses how expectations of intervention shape conflict behavior. Rebel-supporting interventions, interventions with independent interests, and asymmetric interventions lead to an increase in the likelihood of negotiations occurring. Models controlling for expectations of intervention also suggest that third parties can impact belligerents’ behavior through both expectations and follow-through

Adversarial system · Argument (complex analysis · Economics · Intervention (counseling · Negotiation · Political science · Politics · Psychological intervention · Spanish Civil War · Veto · Victory · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Law · Medicine · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology