How Much War Will we see
Explaining the Prevalence of Civil War
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 6283441 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Ibrahim Elbadawi (World Bank), Nicholas Sambanis (0000-0002-1270-289X, Department of Political Science Yale University) |
| Ano | 2002 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Fascículo | 3 |
| Páginas | 307-334 |
| Data de publicação | 2002-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Editora | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002702046003001 |
| OpenAlex | W2027231509 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 161 |
| Referências citadas | 37 |
Quantitative studies of civil war have focused on war initiation (onset) or war duration and termination and produced important insights into these processes. An empirical analysis of civil war prevalence is used to show that the prevalence or amount of war observed at any given time is important. Civil war prevalence is defined as the probability of observing either a new war onset or the continuation of an ongoing war or both. Two economic theories of war onset and duration are combined to estimate the prevalence of civil war across more than 150 countries and over 40 years. The analysis is consistent with the findings of earlier studies on war onset and duration. New findings that result from slight improvements in the data and estimation methods show that democracy and ethnic diversity are significant determinants of civil war prevalence
Asymmetric warfare · Decolonization · Democracy · Development economics · Diversity (politics · Duration (music · Economics · Estimation · Ethnic group · Just war theory · Military operations other than war · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Demography · Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies · Law · Political Conflict and Governance
Ethnic fragmentation, public good provision, and inequality in India, 1988–2012
Political Leadership in Africa
Democracy and Nationalism in Southeast Asia
Power Politics and State Formation in the Twentieth Century
Workers, Warriors, and Criminals
Natural resources and violent conflict
Wars and State Capacity
Business against violence
Exploring the Determinants of Civil War in Ethiopia
Decentralisation, Economic Inequality and Insurgency
Resources and Governance in Sierra Leone’s Civil War
Oil abundance and violent political conflict
Insurgency And Credible Commitment In Autocracies And Democracies
Estimating Impact
Riots, Coups And Civil War
Openness and internal conflict
How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars
Clandestine Political Violence
The Logic of Political Violence
The Logic of Violence in Civil War
Inclusive development, oil extraction and climate change
Climate Shocks and Sino-nomadic Conflict
A Theory of Regional Conflict Complexes
Competitive Threat, Intergroup Contact, or Both? Immigration and the Dynamics of Front National Voting in France
Re-inserting and re-politicizing nature
The limits of global governance
Los estudios sobre conflicto armado y paz
Environmental changes and violent conflict
Civil unrest and herding behavior
Effects of the Deployment and Departure of UN Peacekeeping Operations on Foreign Direct Investment
Low agricultural potential exacerbates the effect of temperature on civil conflicts
A sub-national scale geospatial analysis of diamond deposit lootability
Conflict Environments and Civil War Onset
Rebel Resource Efficiency and the Escalation of Civil Conflict
Human Rights Violations, Weak States, and Civil War
The political process of Boko Haram insurgency onset
Grievance, social dominance orientation, and authoritarianism in the choice and justification of terror versus protest
Why Do Some Organizations Kill While Others Do Not
The unanimity rule and religious fractionalisation in the Polish-Lithuanian Republic
Demographic Factors as Predictors of Revolutionary Situations
Do UN Interventions Cause Peace? Using Matching to Improve Causal Inference
When Civil Wars Recur
Analyzing Spatial Drivers in Quantitative Conflict Studies
What Causes Civil Wars? Integrating Quantitative Research Findings
Reintegrating the Subdisciplines of International and Comparative Politics
Leanings and Dealings
Towards a practitioner-centric definition of civil war
State Capacity, Inequality and Inter-Group Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa
Buying Peace? Civil War Peace Duration and Private Military & Security Companies
Visualizing the Influence of Geography, Oil and Geopolitics on Civil Wars in the Arab World
Female Participation and Civil War Relapse
The Partisan Logic of Decentralization in Europe
What drive the local incidence of crime, shadow economy and resource-related conflicts in Mindanao, Philippines? Evidence of spillover effects
Achieving environmental sustainability and growth in Africa
From Side Show to Centre Stage
From civilian to combatant
The Effects of Water Scarcity and Natural Resources on Refugee Migration
Farming miners’ or ‘mining farmers’
Conflict Diamonds
The Duration of Civil War Peace Agreements
Selected To Go Where Murderers Lurk
United Nations peacekeeping dynamics and the duration of post-civil conflict peace
Explaining religious terrorism
Youth bulge and civil war
Coercion, capacity, and coordination
Golden Opportunity, or a New Twist on the Resource–Conflict Relationship
Means, Motives and Opportunities in Ethno-Nationalist Mobilization
Shocks and Turbulence
Do Civil Wars, Coups and Riots Have the Same Structural Determinants
Global Credit Markets, Political Violence, and Politically Sustainable Risk Premia
Segregation and conflict
Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity
Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa
A theory of regional conflict complexes
Electoral Incentives and Negotiated Settlements
Secession and the invisible hand of the international system
Does Population Diversity Matter for Economic Development in the Very Long Term? Historic Migration, Diversity and County Wealth in the US
Hard Hearts and Open Minds? Governance, Identity and the Intellectual Foundations of Counterinsurgency Strategy
Provoking insurgency in a federal state
The resource curse literature as seen through the appropriability lens
The middle class and the modalities of political protest
Pourquoi les coups d’État se produisent-ils dans les pays en développement
Rebel Tactics
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
Diversity and Diversion
The Economic Cost of Violent Conflict
Rebel commitment to peace processes
Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects
Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict
Inclusive institutions and stability of transition toward democracy in post-civil war states
Civil Wars Kill and Maim People-Long After the Shooting Stops
Ethnicity, Political Systems, and Civil Wars
The Declining Risk of Death in Battle
Supporting Young Adults’ Life Choices
The Micropolitics of Social Violence
Seeing Double
Transnational Rebels
Why Ethnic Subaltern-Led Parties Crowd Out Armed Organizations
Humanitarian Assistance and the Duration of Peace after Civil War
Civil War Destruction and the Prospects for Economic Growth
External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
The Jackknife, the Bootstrap and Other Resampling Plans
The Maximum Likelihood and the Nonlinear Three-Stage Least Squares Estimator in the General Nonlinear Simultaneous Equation Model
Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models
Bootstrap Methods
Prevalence of Aids-Related Risk Factors and Condom Use in the United States
Why are there so many civil wars in Africa? Understanding and preventing violent conflict
Africa's Growth Tragedy
On economic causes of civil war
World handbook of political and social indicators
Democracy and Development
Corruption and Growth
Greed and Grievance in Civil War
Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics
The effect of IMF programs on economic growth
Bad Neighbors, Bad Neighborhoods
Binary Outcomes and Endogenous Explanatory Variables
Taking Time Seriously
A Statistical Model of Bilateral Cooperation
Two-Stage Estimation of Nonrecursive Choice Models
Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers
Ethnicity, Political Systems, and Civil Wars
On the Incidence of Civil War in Africa
Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes
The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity
The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement
A Panel Probit Analysis of Campaign Contributions and Roll-Call Votes
Does Oil Hinder Democracy
Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions
What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data
Armed Conflicts, Conflict Termination and Peace Agreements, 1989-96
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others
Domestic Ethnic Conflict and Ethnic Nepotism
Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992
The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993
International Peacebuilding
| Obras citantes distintas | 161 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 6,71 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2002 - 2026 (25) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Sim |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 161 |