Is China-Taiwan Rapprochement Possible? Experimental Evidence From Taiwan

Bibliographic Data

ID6283575
AuthorsHo-Hsien Pan (0000-0002-4701-9927, Associate Professor of of Sociology, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan, corresponding author), Scott L Kastner (Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA), Margaret M Pearson (0000-0003-4266-9450, Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA)
Year2025
Volume69
Issue7-8
Pages1143-1171
Publication date2025-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00220027241300045
OpenAlexW4404601999
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited33

Any peaceful resolution to the Cross-Strait conflict between China and Taiwan is likely to be composed of give-and-take between the two sides, and any agreement will ultimately require the support of Taiwan’s citizens, by whom Taiwan’s leaders are held accountable. Yet little is known about the actual tradeoffs Taiwanese citizens are willing to make in pursuit of an agreement in a time of peace. In conjoint experiments fielded in Taiwan in April 2022, we present Taiwanese respondents with hypothetical Cross-Strait agreements that randomly assign economic, security, and sovereignty-related concessions by the two sides. We find that support for agreements is conditioned by the concessions included, with sovereignty-related or security-related concessions by Taiwan lowering support, and sovereignty or security-related concessions by China increasing support. Additionally, respondents indicate that neither US support nor PRC threats significantly influence support for agreements, and that Taiwan's acceptance of an agreement substantially reduces the perceived likelihood of conflict

Business · China · Development economics · Economics · International trade · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sovereignty · International Development and Aid · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Political Conflict and Governance