The Law of Small Numbers
Deterrence and National Missile Defense
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6283585 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James H Lebovic (Department of Political Science George Washington University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2002 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 455-483 |
| Publication date | 2002-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002702046004001 |
| OpenAlex | W2029009753 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 33 |
Armed with a new threat and promising technology, advocates of national missile defense (NMD) have framed the debate by presenting NMD as a break from traditional deterrence principles. The assumption that the United States faces new adversaries that cannot be deterred by U.S. offensive options and whether adversaries can and will use nuclear weapons to coerce the United States, given its inclination and ability to retaliate, are assessed. The effectiveness of NMD against various offensive threats is simulated. Conclusions indicate that NMD advocates have not made their case that cold war-era deterrence principles are ill suited to U.S. relations with fledgling nuclear states and that the expected value of a missile defense of any type and scale is low because it is unlikely to enhance global security above levels offered by retaliatory deterrence
Business · Cold war · Computer security · Deterrence (psychology · Deterrence theory · Economics · International trade · Law and economics · Missile · Missile Defense · National security · Nuclear weapon · Offensive · Operations research · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Computer Science · Engineering · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Nuclear Issues and Defense
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons
Deterrence and Defense
The administration's approach
A call to deploy
National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy
Deterrence and Perception
Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers
Deterrence and Compellence in the Gulf, 1990-91
China's Military Views the World
Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers
Deploying NMD
Bush, missile defence and the Atlantic alliance
Deterrance and Defense
Victory Is Possible
National Missile Defense
Dictatorships and Double Standards
Soviet Global Strategy
Nuclear Strategy and National Style
Defending America
Rational Deterrence
Cooperation under the Security Dilemma
Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies
Rational Deterrence Theory
Signaling Foreign Policy Interests
The Sources of Threat Credibility in Extended Deterrence
Deterrence Failure and Crisis Escalation
Deterrence and the Cold War
Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War
Living with the Soviets
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
| Unique citing works | 6 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,3 |
| Citation span | 2006 - 2020 (15) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |