Evaluating Conflict Dynamics

A Novel Empirical Approach to Stage Conceptions

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6283632
AutoresBenjamin T Jones (University of Mississippi), Benjamin Jones (0000-0002-4312-6995, University of Mississippi), Shawna K Metzger (0000-0003-1087-9621, University Scholars Programme, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, autor correspondente)
Ano2018
Volume62
Fascículo4
Páginas819-847
Data de publicação2018-04-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002716656448
OpenAlexW2490917287
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas6
Referências citadas68

Interest in processes has become increasingly pronounced in international conflict research in recent years, especially how these processes unfold across time “dynamics”. We focus in particular on “stage conceptions” of dynamics: processes that unfold over a series of sequential, and possibly recurrent, stages. We suggest that stage conceptions have two key properties: plurisectality and conditional covariate effects. We propose a novel econometric application to quantitatively assess claims regarding stage conceptions of dynamics: survival modeling. Specifically, we use multistate models to examine how a process evolves through its individual stages, and also whether covariate effects differ across these stages. We use Huth and Allee’s territorial dispute data to demonstrate the importance of conceptualizing conflict as a dynamic process, as well as empirically modeling it as such. We show democracy has different effects on dispute resolution, depending on the dispute’s stage, but that these different effects disappear after time passes

Allee effect · Covariate · Dynamics (music · Econometrics · Economics · Focus (optics · Sociology · Demography · International Development and Aid · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology