Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo

Statistical Analysis and Real-Time Predictions

Bibliographic Data

ID6284030
AuthorsJon C Pevehouse (Department of Political Science, Ohio State University), Jon Pevehouse (0000-0003-1761-0422, The Ohio State University), Joshua S Goldstein (School of International Service, American University)
Year1999
Volume43
Issue4
Pages538-546
Publication date1999-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002799043004007
OpenAlexW2067561079
LanguageEN
Citations received35
References cited6

Working during the third week of NATO's bombing campaign against Serbia (in April 1999), the authors analyzed events data from the Kosovo conflict for January 1998 through January 1999. The authors expected the Serbian government's actions toward Kosovo to show an inverse-triangular response to Western actions toward Serbia—a response pattern found earlier for Serb forces in Bosnia and for Iraq from 1979 to 1997. The authors found, however, using time-series statistics, that Serbian actions toward Kosovo were not affected by international actions toward Serbia, despite bilateral reciprocity in the international-Serbian dyad. If this past pattern continues, it is predicted that NATO bombing will not affect Serbian actions toward Kosovo either by inducing Serbian compliance or by provoking greater Serbian hostility toward Kosovo Albanians

Government (linguistics · Hostility · Political science · Reciprocity (cultural anthropology · Serbian · Spanish Civil War · Strategic bombing · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Law · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Psychology · Russia and Soviet political economy · Social Psychology

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