The Shadow of Deterrence

Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6284098
AutoresJ Andrés Gannon (0000-0002-8922-2464, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, USA, autor correspondente), Erik Gartzke (0000-0001-9439-1310, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA), Jon R Lindsay (0000-0001-9218-4932, Georgia Institute of Technology), Peter Schram (0000-0001-6404-2259, Vanderbilt University)
Ano2024
Volume68
Fascículo2-3
Páginas230-268
Data de publicação2024-03-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00220027231166345
OpenAlexW4366486084
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas10
Referências citadas67

Defense policy makers have become increasingly concerned about conflict in the “gray zone” between peace and war. Such conflicts are often interpreted as cases of deterrence failures, as new technologies or tactics—from cyber operations to “little green men”—seem to increase the effectiveness of low-intensity aggression. However, gray zone conflict could also be a case of deterrence success, where challengers adopt a constrained form of aggression in response to a credible escalation threat. We develop a model that formalizes both scenarios and identifies distinct empirical patterns across the two cases. We use the model’s findings to empirically analyze Russian gray zone activity since the 1990s, finding that Russian activity appears, in part, to be restrained by NATO’s deterrent threat. Our model also shows that developing gray zone conflict capabilities can lead to more peace but could also backfire and provoke a challenger to escalate to war

Aggression · Armed conflict · Criminology · Deterrence (psychology · Deterrence theory · Development economics · Economics · Gray (unit · Political economy · Political science · Shadow (psychology · Sociology · Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare Studies · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Psychology · Social Psychology