The Cognitive Calculus of Foreign Policy Decision Making

An Experimental Assessment

Datos Bibliográficos

ID6284249
AutoresNehemia Geva (0000-0002-6068-6150), James Mayhar, J Mark Skorick (Texas A&M University)
Año2000
Volumen44
Número4
Páginas447-471
Fecha de publicación2000-08-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditorialSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002700044004003
OpenAlexW2093596296
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas18
Referencias citadas48

The cognitive calculus theory of foreign policy decision making is an attempt to bridge the gap between two research orientations in the international relations literature: outcome validity and process validity. The cognitive calculus theory models the mental calculations of foreign policy decision making with the premise that an individual conducts the decision-making process and the model should therefore represent his or her capabilities. An experiment tested a few of the model's derivations concerning the effects of the quality of information on process and choice parameters. The results support major aspects of the cognitive calculus theory. Relevant items are attended to more carefully than irrelevant items and speed up the decision process. Furthermore, the valence of the relevant items disposes the choice of a corresponding option. The consequences of plugging the information set used in the experiment into the mathematical model of cognitive calculus show that human behavior parallels the model's predictions

Calculus (dental · Cognition · Cognitive psychology · Economics · Epistemology · Management science · Operations management · Parallels · Premise · Process (computing · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference · Cognitive Science and Mapping · Computer Science · Medicine · Psychology