How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset

Datos Bibliográficos

ID6284744
AutoresMuhammet A Bas (Harvard University, autor de correspondencia), Robert Schub (0000-0003-3315-4957, Harvard University), Robert J Schub (Harvard University)
Año2016
Volumen60
Número6
Páginas1099-1128
Fecha de publicación2016-09-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditorialSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002714553110
OpenAlexW2320245631
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas22
Referencias citadas60

In canonical accounts of war, conflict outcomes are inherently uncertain. Contesting literatures posit that this uncertainty, arising from stochastic elements of the war-fighting process, may induce conflict due to greater risks of miscalculation or foster peace by breeding caution. We theorize that states, on average, exhibit prudence when confronting greater uncertainty. Despite its conceptual importance, extant proxies for uncertainty at various levels of analysis—such as polarity, balance of power, system concentration, and dyadic relative capabilities—are imprecise and theoretically inappropriate indicators. To overcome this shortcoming, we theorize the conditions that elevate the magnitude of uncertainty over conflict outcomes and introduce a novel measure that captures this uncertainty within any k-state system. Through extensive empirical analysis, we confirm uncertainty’s pacifying effect and show how this effect operates at different levels of analysis

Econometrics · Economics · Epistemology · Extant taxon · Political science · Positive economics · Prudence · State (computer science · Computer Science · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance