The End of the Cold War
Predicting an Emergent Property
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284922 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Bruce Bueno De Mesquita (0000-0001-8582-8330, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1998 |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 131-155 |
| Publication date | 1998-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002798042002001 |
| OpenAlex | W2155238110 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 23 |
| References cited | 20 |
Gaddis claimed that international relations theory failed to predict the Gulf War, the Soviet Union's collapse, and the cold war's end. Subsequently, he acknowledged that the expected utility model captures the logic behind complex adaptive systems such as the cold war international system. That model correctly predicted two of the events to which Gaddis pointed. Here, that model is used to simulate alternative scenarios to determine whether the cold war's end could have been predicted based only on information available in 1948. The simulations show a 68% to 78% probability that the United States would win the cold war peacefully given the conditions in 1948 and plausible shifts in the attentiveness of each state to security concerns over time. The analysis demonstrates a rigorous method for testing counterfactual histories and shows that the pro-American end to the cold war was an emergent property of the initial post-World War II conditions
Cold war · Counterfactual thinking · Economics · International relations · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Soviet union · State (computer science · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 23 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,79 |
| Citation span | 1997 - 2024 (28) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 23 |