Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel

A Computer Simulation

Bibliographic Data

ID6285934
AuthorsMichael D Ward (0000-0002-6561-6186, Center for International Relations, Department of Political Science, University of Colorado), Alex Mintz (Departments of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and, Texas A & M University)
Year1987
Volume31
Issue1
Pages86-105
Publication date1987-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002787031001006
OpenAlexW2147311925
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited8

A model of military spending in Israel from 1960-1983 is developed. Domestic expenditures, U.S. military aid to Israel, and Israeli foreign defense purchases comprise the three main components of the model. Security concerns vis-a-vis the Arab states, war involvement, inflation, and election cycles are found to be exogenous influences on spending in Israel; equally important is the strong feedback that permits the domestic budget, imports, and military aid to influence one another jointly. Based on a mathematical model, several counterfactual simulation experiments are examined to evaluate possible trends in the evolution of Israeli military spending until the end of the decade. Neither optimistic (i.e., putatively deescalatory forces) nor pessimistic (those thought to bring about escalation) scenarios are found to be significantly different from one another. Under all scenarios examined, Israeli military spending grows rapidly at least until the end of the decade

Counterfactual thinking · Development economics · Economics · Inflation (cosmology · Pessimism · Political science · Economic Growth and Productivity · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Global trade and economics · Psychology · Social Psychology

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub