The Conceptual Bases of The War Trap

Bibliographic Data

ID6285985
AuthorsMichael Nicholson (0000-0001-5492-0679, International Studies Unit in London, University of Salford, corresponding author)
Year1987
Volume31
Issue2
Pages346-369
Publication date1987-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002787031002007
OpenAlexW2013852635
LanguageEN
Citations received8
References cited18

This article attempts to evaluate the claims of Bruce Bueno De Mesquita in The War Trap to have provided a deductive, expected utility theory of war initiation in the light of various criticisms that have been levied against him. The criticisms concern both the status of the model as a rational choice model and the evidence adduced in its support. It is suggested that the interpretation of the concept used in the theory as expected utility is both unnecessary and misleading, while the strong claim of the theory to provide necessary conditions for war initiation is refuted, not confirmed, by the evidence presented. However, a weaker, but still important claim may well be true, though only a part of the evidence presented is appropriate to support it. The assertion that the theory is a step forward in a Lakatosian Research Program, in that it explains more than its predecessors, is viewed skeptically

Assertion · Economics · Epistemology · Expected utility hypothesis · Interpretation (philosophy · Law and economics · Linguistics · Mathematical economics · Political science · Positive economics · Rational choice theory (criminology · Trap (plumbing · Computer Science · Law · Philosophy · Political Conflict and Governance