The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization

Bibliographic Data

ID6286205
AuthorsChristian Houle (0000-0001-7231-2992, Michigan State University, corresponding author), Mark A Kayser, Mark Andreas Lindst Auml Dt Kayser (0000-0001-6195-405X, Applied Methods and Comparative Politics, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, Germany)
Year2019
Volume63
Issue10
Pages2421-2437
Publication date2019-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002719875565
OpenAlexW4252939211
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited26

Does democratization diffuse? For over two decades, numerous studies have asserted that democratization diffuses across countries but recent research has challenged this claim. Most recently, work by Brancati and Lucardi has buttressed this null finding by demonstrating that an oft assumed mechanism for the diffusion of democratization—the diffusion of pro-democracy protests—lacks empirical support. We review this contribution in the context of recent research and pose the question: if democratization does not diffuse, then why does democratization cluster in time and space? The answer, we argue, is that democratization occurs in two steps. First, common shocks, economic or political, lead to regime collapse. Then, diffusion does emerge in a second step: new elites are more likely to install a democracy following a regime collapse if neighboring countries have recently democratized. We present evidence from democratic transitions in 125 autocracies between 1875 and 2014

Autocracy · Context (archaeology · Democracy · Democratization · Development economics · Economic system · Economics · Geography · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies

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