The asymmetric long-term electoral consequences of unpopular reforms
Why Retrenchment Really Is a Losing Game for Left Parties
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6290373 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alexander Horn (0000-0001-8811-4958, Harvard University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 1494-1517 |
| Publication date | 2021-09-02 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of European Public Policy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1350-1763 • E-ISSN: 1466-4429 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13501763.2020.1773904 |
| OpenAlex | W3037224213 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 31 |
| References cited | 34 |
Debates about the electoral malaise of the Left, punishment for cutbacks, and left parties as credible protectors of the welfare state have neglected the long-term consequences of retrenchment. To find out how reforms affect parties’ popularity beyond individual government periods, we track the electoral performance of government parties over five elections and assess the interplay of unpopular reforms, partisanship, and the economic legacy. Based on well-known asymmetries in the conditionality of welfare support among parties’ core groups, we hypothesize that right parties reap the economic fruits of their reform labour, whereas left parties struggle to claim credit even if the promised positive economic legacy materializes. Our analyses of the consequences of retrenchment for 196 cabinets in 18 countries confirm that losses of left parties after reforms – in contrast to losses of right parties – are permanent and independent of the economic legacy; creating a tragedy of social-democratic responsibility
Conditionality · Democracy · Economics · Government (linguistics · Market economy · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Retrenchment · Welfare · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Public Administration · Social Policy and Reform Studies
The Equality Positions and Policies of Governments, 1970–2020
The lasting impact of crisis narratives
Labour’s ‘Ming Vase Strategy’
What Explains the Electoral Crisis of Social Democracy? A Systematic Review of the Literature
Turning off the base
The Electoral Crisis of Social Democracy
Winning with equality
Beyond trade-offs
Welfare by design
The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries
Social Policy and Political Trust
A ‘leftist premium’ to protest movements
Does the left still own social policies? The effect of incumbent partisanship on citizens’ perceptions of public spending in Spain
Contextual welfare chauvinism
Rethinking political space in Europe
Narratives of social democracy’s demise
The implosion of radical right populism and the path forward for social democracy
The rightward shift and electoral decline of social democratic parties under increasing inequality
Partisan Influence on Policy Preferences in Retrenching the Welfare State
Who still likes social democracy? The support base of social democratic parties reconsidered
Policymaking under tough economic times
Issue salience and feedback effects
The electoral consequences of welfare state changes
Unequal German Democracy and the Rise of the ‘Lifestyle-Left’? How Left Parties in Germany Conceive of (In)Equality, 1970–2021
Are governments paying a price for austerity? Fiscal consolidations reduce government approval
Who benefits from the social democratic march to the middle
Populism's rise in post‐communist countries
Determinants of Income Composition Inequality
Does Austerity Cause Polarization
When Do Citizens Consider Political Parties Legitimate
Subverted expectations and social democratic austerity
The Transformation of European Social Democracy
Politics in Time
Radical Welfare State Retrenchment
Partisan Competition and Welfare State Retrenchment
Governing for the Long Term
The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms
The New Politics of the Welfare State
European Social Democracy between Political Economy and Electoral Competition
The Democratic Class Struggle
Political parties’ welfare image, electoral punishment and welfare state retrenchment
The decline of the working-class vote, the reconfiguration of the welfare support coalition and consequences for the welfare state
A New Progressive Coalition? The European Left in a Time of Change
Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects
Catchall or Catch and Release? The Electoral Consequences of Social Democratic Parties’ March to the Middle in Western Europe
The New Politics of the Welfare State
Conditional Punishment
How Stable Is Political Parties’ Issue Ownership? A Cross-Time, Cross-National Analysis
Understanding Interaction Models
How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice
Social democratic austerity
How New Economic Ideas Changed the Danish Welfare State
Beyond Left and Right
The electoral consequences of welfare state retrenchment
Governments and unpopular social policy reform
When and why politicians donotkeep their welfare promises
Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study
Government Ideology, Economic Pressure, and Risk Privatization
What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data
ModernizeandDie'? German social democracy and the electoral consequences of the Agenda 2010
Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy
New Politics and Class Politics in the Context of Austerity and Globalization
The Welfare State or the Economy? Preferences, Constituencies, and Strategies for Retrenchment
| Citations per year | 6.2 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Highly cited | No |