Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown

Comparative case selection and lessons from the past

Bibliographic Data

ID6298940
AuthorsJean Lachapelle (0000-0002-2596-5912, Université de Montréal), Sebastian Hellmeier (0000-0002-9423-7150, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, corresponding author)
Year2024
Volume45
Issue1
Pages123-143
Publication date2024-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueInternational Political Science Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0192-5121 • E-ISSN: 1460-373X
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/01925121221138408
OpenAlexW4311800114
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited55

Mass movements that are able to overthrow a dictator do not always lead to democracy. Transition periods present narrow windows of opportunity in which activists face difficult decisions to build democracy and prevent authoritarian relapse. Existing scholarship offers limited guidance for pro-democracy forces because it focuses on unchangeable structural factors and cases with a known outcome. We propose an innovative approach for finding informative comparisons for ongoing transitions after authoritarian breakdowns. We quantify the similarity between all breakdowns caused by mass uprisings since 1945 based on their structural preconditions. We then apply our approach to Sudan’s ongoing transition and draw lessons from two similar cases: the Philippines in 1986 (successful democratization); and Burma/Myanmar in 1988 (failed democratization). Our analysis shows that structural factors are weak predictors of transition outcomes and that Sudan shares characteristics with cases of both failed and successful democratization. Therefore, democratic transition appears possible in Sudan

Authoritarianism · Autocracy · Democracy · Democratization · Development economics · Dictator · Economic system · Economics · Face (sociological concept · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Scholarship · Social science · Sociology · Transition (genetics · Cambodian History and Society · Law · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access