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Working Class Votes and Conservative Losses

Solving the Ukip Puzzle

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6309366
AutoresGeoffrey M Evans (0000-0003-2036-7814), Geoffrey Evans (0009-0003-8488-0227), Jonathan Mellon (0000-0001-6754-203X, University of Oxford), Jon Mellon
Ano2016
Volume69
Fascículo2
Páginas464-479
Data de publicação2016-04-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessNão
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoParliamentary Affairs (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0031-2290 • E-ISSN: 1460-2482
EditoraOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/pa/gsv005
OpenAlexW2091275095
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas53
Referências citadas30

Opinions are divided on whether the Conservatives or Labour need to worry most about UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2015 General Election. How do we reconcile evidence of substantial levels of UKIP support among traditional working class voters, and in Labour constituencies, with evidence that UKIP voters report voting Conservative in 2010? In this article, we resolve this implicit contradiction using long-term panel data to examine the sequencing of vote switching from Labour to UKIP. We argue that Labour's move to the ‘liberal consensus’ on the EU and immigration led to many of their core voters defecting before UKIP were an effective political presence. We show that not only is the working-class basis of UKIP overstated but the party is mainly attracting disaffected former Labour voters from the Conservatives and elsewhere, which is why the Conservatives, not Labour, will feel most of the electoral pain in 2015

Ballot · Conservatism · Economics · General election · Independence (probability theory · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Social Policy and Reform Studies

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Obras citantes distintas53
Citações por ano5,3
Intervalo de citações2016 - 2026 (11)
Velocidade de citaçãocurrent
Altamente citadoNão
Tipos de citaçãoNeutras: 53
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