The impact of anti-establishment parties on the electoral success of independent local lists

Evidence from Germany

Bibliographic Data

ID6314545
AuthorsMichael Jankowski (0000-0002-7765-9132), Christina‐marie Juen (0000-0003-0178-0099), Christina-Marie Juen, Melissa Tepe (0000-0002-6679-0346, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg), Markus Tepe
Year2022
Volume28
Issue1
Pages127-136
Publication date2022-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueParty Politics (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1354-0688 • E-ISSN: 1460-3683
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/1354068820965430
OpenAlexW3093956845
LanguageEN
Citations received19
References cited26

Independent local lists (ILL) have become an important non-partisan actor in many local elections. However, little is known about which factors explain their electoral success. Drawing on recent contributions regarding the anti-establishment attitudes of many ILL, we argue that the rise of anti-establishment parties, especially the rise of populist radical-right parties, potentially harms the electoral success of ILL. Our main argument is that both actors attract voters that are dissatisfied with established parties. To test this hypothesis, we draw on the case of municipal elections in the German federal state of Lower Saxony. In the election of 2016, the populist radical-right party AfD competed in only a subset of all municipalities, meaning that some voters could cast their vote for the AfD in only some of the municipalities. We use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of the AfD on independent local list’s vote share and demonstrate that ILL suffered strongly from the entrance of the AfD to the electoral arena. More specifically, our findings demonstrate that the increase in the success of ILL was halted in municipalities in which the AfD competed, while it continued to increase in regions where the AfD was absent. These findings suggest that the increasing success of ILL is due to voters’ dissatisfaction with the established parties and not necessarily due to an increasing interest in local issues

Argument (complex analysis · Democracy · Electoral system · German · Meaning (existential · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Radical right · Sociology · State (computer science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Psychology · Social Media and Politics

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