The Electoral College after Census 2010 and 2020
The Political Impact of Population Growth and Redistribution
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6324815 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Edward M Burmila, Edward Burmila (0000-0003-4473-7955, University of Georgia, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2009 |
| Volume | 7 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 837-847 |
| Publication date | 2009-12-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Perspectives on Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1537-5927 • E-ISSN: 1541-0986 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1537592709991836 |
| OpenAlex | W2149637171 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 19 |
The combined effects of an aging population, domestic migration, and the geographically heterogeneous effects of foreign immigration are producing politically significant changes in the distribution of the American population. Using statistical projections of state populations in the 2010 and 2020 US Censuses combined with statewide estimates of the normal vote based on the last five presidential elections (1992–2008), I show that by 2024 Republican presidential candidates will receive a net benefit of at least eight electoral votes due to the declining population of the Northeast and upper Midwest relative to the rapidly-growing Sun Belt. Democratic presidential candidates will find it increasingly difficult to win elections without having some success in the South and Southwest as Barack Obama did in 2008 but many previous candidates failed to do. While migration will also benefit some solid Democratic states such as California, on balance Republican presidential candidates are poised to benefit from the status of Sun Belt states as magnets for both foreign immigration and domestic migration from a retirement cohort of unprecedented size
Census · Democracy · Demographic economics · Development economics · Economics · Geography · Immigration · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Population · Presidential election · Presidential system · Redistribution (election · Sociology · Demography · Health disparities and outcomes · Law · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
One Person, How Many Votes? Demographic Distortions in United States Elections
Population change, racial settlement patterns, and the newest southern electorate
The Impact of Political Settings on Bank Competition
The changing South in presidential elections
Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune
Élections de 2020 aux États-Unis
Red rural, blue rural? Presidential voting patterns in a changing rural America
Elections and the political order
Recent developments in population projection methodology
Election Forecasting
Do Primary Voters Draw from a Stacked Deck? Presidential Nominations in an Era of Candidate‐Centered Campaigns
Population forecast accuracy
An evaluation of population projections by age
Interstate Migration and Electoral Politics
Exploring the Bases of Partisanship in the American Electorate
Localism in Presidential Elections
Political Context and Attitude Change
Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
| Citations per year | 0.64 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2015 - 2026 (12) |
| Highly cited | No |