Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6332192 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lucas Leemann (0000-0001-5201-869X, University of Zurich, corresponding author), Lukas F Stoetzer (0000-0003-2486-7496, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin), Richard Traunmüller (0000-0001-9487-091X, University of Mannheim) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 29 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 541-553 |
| Publication date | 2021-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Analysis (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1047-1987 • E-ISSN: 1476-4989 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/pan.2020.42 |
| OpenAlex | W3128706740 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 37 |
Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs
Ask price · Context (archaeology · Data science · Task (project management · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Psychology · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology · Survey Methodology and Nonresponse
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| Citations per year | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2025 (4) |
| Highly cited | No |