Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

A Natural Experiment of Race-Based and Issue Voting

The 2001 City of Los Angeles Elections

Bibliographic Data

ID6340470
AuthorsM Abrajano (0000-0002-4818-3470, New York University), Marisa A Abrajano (New York University/Texas A&M Jonathan Nagler, New York University), R Michael Alvarez (0000-0002-8113-4451, California Institute of Technology)
Year2005
Volume58
Issue2
Pages203-218
Publication date2005-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePolitical Research Quarterly (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1065-9129 • E-ISSN: 1938-274X
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/106591290505800202
OpenAlexW2045761057
LanguageEN
Citations received44
References cited79

The theory of racially polarized voting suggests that race is a primary determinant of vote choice in elections where a minority candidate is pitted against a white candidate. The spatial model of voting suggests that voters consider the issue positions of candidates and choose the candidate closest to their own positions. The unique context of the 2001 Los Angeles city election allows us to test these two theories. In each of two races in this election, a Latino candidate competed against a white candidate. In one race the white candidate was considered more liberal, while in the other race the Latino candidate was seen as more liberal. This particular ethnic and ideological composition provides us with a natural experimenting which to test the two competing theories. While voter ethnicity mattered, we show that consistent with the spatial model, voters also relied on issues and ideology as factors in their voting choices. By considering the choices voters are making in two different elections, we argue that estimates of the extent of racial voting in previous research may be overstated

Context (archaeology · Ethnic group · Geography · Ideology · Natural experiment · Political science · Politics · Race (biology · Sociology · Statistics · Test (biology · Voting · Voting behavior · White (mutation · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Gender Studies · Law · Mathematics · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies

  • Owning Immigration

    Open Access•Allyson F Shortle, Allyson Shortle et al.•The Journal of Race Ethnicity and…•2017

  • Ideology and Vote Choice in U.S. Mayoral Elections

    Open Access•Michael W Sances•Political Behavior•2018

  • Elecciones presidenciales y desarrollo municipal

    Open Access•Luis Eduardo Sandoval-Garrido, Margarita Marín-Jaramillo•Lecturas de Economía•2022

  • Demographic Disparities Using Ranked-Choice Voting? Ranking Difficulty, Under-Voting, and the 2020 Democratic Primary

    Open Access•Joseph A Coll•Politics and Governance•2021

  • White attitudes about descriptive representation in the US

    Deborah J Schildkraut•Politics Groups and Identities•2015

  • Not the usual story

    Eric Gonzalez Juenke, Paru Shah•Politics Groups and Identities•2015

  • Interest groups in US local politics

    Open Access•Sarah F Anzia•Interest Groups & Advocacy•2022

  • Chocolate City” Politics

    Open Access•Allan Mcbride, Joseph B Parker•Politics & Policy•2008

  • Crime, Policing, and Voter Turnout in Chicago's 2023 and 2019 Mayoral Elections

    Open Access•B Mccarthy, J Hagan et al.•Urban Affairs Review•2025

  • A matter of life or death

    Eddie Lucero, Jessica Trounstine et al.•Journal of Urban Affairs•2020

  • Fundraising Coalitions in Open Seat Mayoral Elections

    Brian E Adams•Journal of Urban Affairs•2007

  • A Reply to Zax's (2002) Critique of Grofman and Migalski (1988)

    Open Access•B Grofman, Matt A Barreto•Sociological Methods & Research•2009

  • Constituents' Responses to Descriptive and Substantive Representation in Congress

    Open Access•Philip Edward Jones•Social Science Quarterly•2016

  • Issue Voting and Crime in Gubernatorial Elections

    Open Access•Jeff Cummins•Social Science Quarterly•2009

  • How Partisan Are U.S. Local Elections? Evidence from 2020 Cast Vote Records

    Open Access•Aleksandra Conevska, Sedi Hirano et al.•American Political Science Review•2025

  • Does variation in residents’ spatial mobility affect their preferences concerning local governance

    Open Access•Michael L Wicki, Michael Wicki et al.•Political Geography•2019

  • Being Hispanic Matters? Ethnicity as Predictor of Vote Preference in the Arizona 2024 U.S. Senate Election

    Open Access•Eduardo Munoz Suarez, Jorge Restrepo-Garcia et al.•American Behavioral Scientist•2025

  • How Much Disagreement is Good for Democratic Deliberation

    Kevin M Esterling, Archon Fung et al.•Political Communication•2015

  • What Underlies Urban Politics? Race, Class, Ideology, Partisanship, and the Urban Vote

    Open Access•Zoltan L Hajnal, Zoltan Hajnal et al.•Urban Affairs Review•2014

  • What Date Works Best for You? Changes in Electorate Demographics and Policy Priorities in Concurrent Elections

    Open Access•Eddie Lucero, Ricardo Robles et al.•Urban Affairs Review•2025

  • Postdisaster Politics

    Open Access•Robert S Montjoy, Edward E Chervenak et al.•Urban Affairs Review•2020

  • The Hispanic Vote in the 2004 Presidential Election

    M Abrajano, Marisa A Abrajano et al.•The Journal of Politics•2008

  • Elecciones municipales en España

    Open Access•Pedro Riera, Reid Gómez et al.•Revista de Estudios Políticos•2016

  • Are local policy attitudes distinct

    Open Access•Bertram Schaffner, Jesse H Rhodes et al.•Political Science Research and…•2024

  • Shared interests foster interethnic cooperation among politicians

    Open Access•Daniel M Butler, M Tavits•Political Science Research and…•2021

  • Strange Bedfellows? Polarized Politics? The Quest for Racial Equity in Contemporary America

    Open Access•Desmond S King, Desmond King et al.•Political Research Quarterly•2008

  • Countering Implicit Appeals

    Matthew Tokeshi, Tali Mendelberg•Political Communication•2015

  • Sex and Race

    Open Access•Adam J Berinsky, Vincent L Hutchings et al.•Political Behavior•2011

  • Racial Isolation Drives Racial Voting

    Open Access•Daniel De Kadt, Melissa L Sands•Political Behavior•2021

  • Strategic Discrimination

    Open Access•Regina Bateson•Perspectives on Politics•2020

  • Friendly fire

    Open Access•Randy Besco•Party Politics•2020

  • In-Group Loyalty and the Punishment of Corruption

    Open Access•Hector Solaz, Catherine E De Vries et al.•Comparative Political Studies•2019

  • Party and Ideology in American Local Government

    Open Access•Sarah F Anzia•Annual Review of Political Science•2021

  • Racial or Spatial Voting? The Effects of Candidate Ethnicity and Ethnic Group Endorsements in Local Elections

    Open Access•Cheryl Boudreau, Christopher S Elmendorf et al.•American Journal of Political…•2019

  • Social Identity and Electoral Accountability

    Open Access•Dimitri Landa, Dominik Duell•American Journal of Political…•2015

  • Political Knowledge and the Use of Candidate Race as a Voting Cue

    Open Access•Tetsuya Matsubayashi, Minoru Ueda et al.•American Politics Research•2011

  • Low-Information Voting

    Open Access•R Michael Alvarez, Thad E Hall et al.•American Politics Research•2018

  • Demographic Moderation of Spatial Voting in Presidential Elections

    Open Access•Lindsay Dun, Steve Jessee•American Politics Research•2020

  • Which Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Assessing Attitudes About Descriptive Representation Among Latinos and Asian Americans

    Open Access•Deborah J Schildkraut•American Politics Research•2013

  • Too Liberal to Win? Race and Voter Perceptions of Candidate Ideology

    Open Access•Sarah A Fulton, Sarah Allen Gershon•American Politics Research•2018

  • Non-compliant Managers, Judging Citizens

    Casey J Fleming, Candice Pippin Bodkin•Public Integrity•2023

  • Latino Incorporation Reaches the Urban Summit

    Open Access•Raphael J Sonenshein, Susan H Pinku et al.•PS Political Science & Politics•2005

  • Under what conditions do ethnic minority candidates attract the ethnic minority vote? How neighbourhood and candidate characteristics affected ethnic affinity voting in the Dutch 2017 parliamentary elections

    Open Access•R Van Der Zwan, J Tolsma et al.•Political Geography•2020

  • When Natural Experiments Are Neither Natural nor Experiments

    Open Access•Jasjeet S Sekhon, Rocío Titiunik•American Political Science Review•2012

  • Race and the decline of class in American politics

    R Robert Huckfeldt•Race and the decline of class in…•1989

  • Whose votes count?

    Abigail M Thernstrom•Whose votes count?•1987

  • Southern politics in State and Nation

    V O Key•Southern politics in State and…•1949

  • Change and continuity in the 1988 elections

    Paul R Abramson•Change and continuity in the 1988…•1990

  • Cross-level inference

    Christopher H Achen•Cross-level inference•1995

  • Black Political Participation Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency 1930-1970 . By Doug McAdam The Origins of the Civil Rights Movement, Black Communities Organizing for Change . By Aldon D. Morris Minority Vote Dilution . By Chandler Davidson The Voting Rights Act, Consequences and Implications . By Lorn S. Foster The Jesse Jackson Phenomenon, the Crisis of Purpose in Afro-American Politics . By Adolph L. Reed, Jr.

    Dianne M Pinderhughes•Polity•1988

  • Ideology and the Theory of Political Choice

    Melvin J Hinich, Melvin Hinich et al.•Ideology and the theory of…•1994

  • Letting the People Decide

    Richard Johnston, André Blais et al.•Letting the People Decide•1992

  • Analytical Politics

    Open Access•Melvin J Hinich, Michael C Munger•Analytical Politics•1997

  • The Paradox of Representation

    D Lublin•Paradox of Representation•1997

  • The Urban Voter

    Karen M Kaufmann, Karen Kaufmann•The Urban Voter•2004

  • An economic theory of democracy

    Anthony Downs•An economic theory of democracy•1985

  • The Reasoning Voter

    Samuel L Popkin•The Reasoning Voter•1991

  • The Changing American Voter

    Norman H Nie, Sidney Verba et al.•Changing American Voter•1979

  • Race and Place

    Open Access•Susan Welch, Lee Sigelman et al.•Race and Place•2001

  • The Scar of Race

    Paul M Sniderman, Thomas Piazza et al.•Scar of Race•1993

  • Race, Redistricting, and Representation

    David T Canon•Race, Redistricting, and…•1999

  • The Race Card

    Open Access•Tali Mendelberg•Race Card•2001

  • The British General Election 2001

    Open Access•David Downes, Rod Morgan•Punishment & Society•2002

  • The Race Card

    Matthew Schneirov, Tali Mendelberg•Contemporary Sociology A Journal…•2002

  • Reaching Beyond Race

    Marlese Durr, Paul M Sniderman et al.•Contemporary Sociology A Journal…•1999

  • Asian Americans and Latinos in San Gabriel Valley, California

    Leland T Saito•Amerasia Journal•1993

  • The Responsible Electorate

    Open Access•Philip E Converse•Political Science Quarterly•1966

  • Protest is Not Enough

    Open Access•Charles P Henry•Political Science Quarterly•1985

  • The People's Choice

    Paul F Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson et al.•The People's Choice•1968

  • Naturalization, Socialization, Participation

    Wendy K Tam Cho•The Journal of Politics•1999

  • Cognitive links between economic grievances and political responses

    Open Access•Richard R Lau, David O Sears•Political Behavior•1981

  • The Contextual Effects of Race on White Voter Behavior

    Thomas M Carsey•The Journal of Politics•1995

  • Racial Crossover Voting and the Election of Black Officials

    Charles S Bullock•The Journal of Politics•1984

  • David Duke and Black Threat

    Michael W Giles, Melanie A Buckner•The Journal of Politics•1993

  • Beyond Racial Threat

    D Stephen Vo, Dietmar Vo et al.•The Journal of Politics•1996

  • The Paradox of Representation

    Thomas Schwartz•The Journal of Politics•1995

  • The Effect of Partisan Information on Voters in Nonpartisan Elections

    Peverill Squire, Eric R A N Smith•The Journal of Politics•1988

  • Ideology in the 1980 Election

    Kelly Knight, Kathleen Knight•The Journal of Politics•1985

  • Executing Hortons

    Tali Mendelberg•Public Opinion Quarterly•1997

  • The Partisan Heuristic in Low-Information Elections

    Brian F Schaffner, Bertram Schaffner et al.•Public Opinion Quarterly•2002

  • Racial Attitudes in America

    Open Access•Sarah Patton Moberg, Sarah Moberg et al.•Public Opinion Quarterly•2019

  • Estimating Racially Polarized Voting

    Daron R Shaw•Political Research Quarterly•1997

  • Tearns Without Uniforms

    Open Access•Brian F Schaffner, Bertram Schaffner et al.•Political Research Quarterly•2001

  • Asians?A monolithic voting bloc

    Open Access•Wendy K Tam•Political Behavior•1995

  • State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections

    Thomas M Carsey, Gerald C Wright et al.•American Journal of Political…•1998

  • How Citizens Think about National Issues

    Sharad Iyengar, Shanto Iyengar•American Journal of Political…•1989

  • Economics, Issues and the Perot Candidacy

    R Michael Alvarez, Jonathan Nagler•American Journal of Political…•1995

  • Economic Self-Interest and Political Behavior

    Stanley Feldman•American Journal of Political…•1982

  • A New Approach to the Spatial Theory of Electoral Competition

    Melvin J Hinich, Walker Pollard•American Journal of Political…•1981

  • Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate

    Brad T Gomez, J Matthew Wilson•American Journal of Political…•2001

  • Economics, Entitlements, and Social Issues

    R Michael Alvarez, Jonathan Nagler•American Journal of Political…•1998

  • When Politics and Models Collide

    R Michael Alvarez, Jonathan Nagler•American Journal of Political…•1998

  • Making the Most of Statistical Analyses

    Gary King, Michael Tomz et al.•American Journal of Political…•2000

  • Black Candidates, White Voters

    Carol K Sigelman, Lee Sigelman et al.•American Journal of Political…•1995

  • Rainbow Coalitions in Four Big Cities

    Carlos Muñoz, Carlos Calvo Muñoz et al.•PS Political Science & Politics•1986

  • The Dynamics of Latino Political Incorporation

    Open Access•Raphael J Sonenshein, Susan H Pinku et al.•PS Political Science & Politics•2002

  • Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals

    W Stitt Robinson•American Sociological Review•1950

  • The Two Faces of Issue Voting

    Open Access•E G Carmines, James A Stimson•American Political Science Review•1980

  • Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress

    Open Access•Charles M Cameron, Charles Cameron et al.•American Political Science Review•1996

  • Candidates and Policy in United States Senate Elections

    Open Access•Gerald C Wright, Gerald Wright et al.•American Political Science Review•1986

  • Economic and Referendum Voting

    Open Access•Lonna Rae Atkeson, Randall W Partin•American Political Science Review•1995

  • Economic Voting and the "Symbolic Politics" Argument

    Open Access•M Stephen Weatherford•American Political Science Review•1983

  • Attitude Attribution

    Open Access•Henry E Brady, Paul M Sniderman•American Political Science Review•1985

  • The Election of Hispanics in City Government

    Open Access•Rodney E Hero, Rodney Hero•The Western Political Quarterly•1987

  • Black Political Participation in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections

    Open Access•Katherine Tate•American Political Science Review•1991

  • The Dynamics of Biracial Coalitions

    Open Access•Raphael J Sonenshein•The Western Political Quarterly•1989

  • A Directional Theory of Issue Voting

    Open Access•George Rabinowitz, Stuart Elaine Macdonald•American Political Science Review•1989

Unique citing works44
Citations per year2,1
Citation span2005 - 2025 (21)
Citation velocityrecent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 44

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae