What to expect when you're electing
Citizen Forecasts in the 2020 Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6341859 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gregory A Huber (0000-0001-6804-8148, Yale University, corresponding author), Patrick D Tucker (0000-0002-6234-8286), Patrick Tucker (0000-0003-0955-220X) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 624-632 |
| Publication date | 2024-07-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Science Research and Methods (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2049-8470 • E-ISSN: 2049-8489 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/psrm.2022.61 |
| OpenAlex | W4327600703 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 27 |
Political divisions in the lead-up to the 2020 US presidential election were large, leading many to worry that heighted partisan conflict was so stark that partisans were living in different worlds, divided even in their understanding of basic facts. Moreover, the nationalization of American politics is thought to weaken attention to state political concerns. 2020 therefore provides an excellent, if difficult, test case for the claim that individuals understand their state political environment in a meaningful way. Were individuals able to look beyond national rhetoric and the national environment to understand state-level electoral dynamics? We present new data showing that, in the aggregate, despite partisan differences in electoral expectations, Americans are aware of their state's likely political outcome, including whether it will be close. At the same time, because forecasting the overall election outcome is more difficult, Electoral College forecasts are much noisier and display persistent partisan difference in expectations that do not differ much with state of residence
Demographic economics · Economics · Microeconomics · National election · Outcome (game theory · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Residence · State (computer science · Worry · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Psychology
The Increasingly United States
Partisan Paths to Exposure Diversity
Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U . S . Presidential Election
Partisan Bias in Factual Beliefs about Politics
Local knowledge, local learning and predicting election outcomes
Voting Experiences, Perceptions of Fraud, and Voter Confidence
The rise of negative partisanship and the nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st century
Partisanship and confidence in the vote count
Partisan Perceptual Bias and the Information Environment
The Parties in Our Heads
Same Facts, Different Interpretations
Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
It’s Largely a Rigged System
All the Best Polls Agree with Me
The race may be close but my horse is going to win
Partisan Gaps in Political Information and Information‐Seeking Behavior
What Motivates Reasoning? A Theory of Goal‐Dependent Political Evaluation
Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions
Citizen Forecasting
The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States
How campaigns promote the legitimacy of elections
The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters
Affective polarization, local contexts and public opinion in America
| Highly cited | No |
|---|