Why Could Tocqueville Predict So Well

Bibliographic Data

ID6350455
AuthorsRoger Boesche (Occidental College, corresponding author)
Year1983
Volume11
Issue1
Pages79-103
Publication date1983-02-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePolitical Theory (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0090-5917 • E-ISSN: 1552-7476
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0090591783011001005
OpenAlexW2089747174
LanguageEN
Citations received10

ORE THAN A CENTURY after most of Tocqueville's contemporaries have become curiosities to all but a few specialized scholars, newspaper journalists routinely summon the authority of Tocqueville, and undergraduate teachers regularly assign Democracy in America and The Old Regime. Tocqueville's writings continue to intrigue us for two reasons: first, his political insights remain remarkably useful, and second, probably no other nineteenth-century thinker predicted future political events as well. Among many possible examples, consider the following predictions by Tocqueville: the rise of the United States and Russia as the two dominant superpowers;' the political tensions and occasional revolts resulting from black Americans seeking equality;2 the near annihilation of North America's Native American population;3 the unification of Germany only by force of Prussian arms;4 the persistent influence of the English aristocracy in British politics despite the hopes of other liberal thinkers;5 the murderous war between France and Algeria that followed from the French pattern of colonization;6 the gradual centralization of governmental and private economic power, bringing about a world dominated by bureaucracies (and he probably invented the word bureaucracy);7 the growing feelings of isolation and powerlessness that have become the concern of so many twentiethcentury writers;8 and finally, and most dramatically, his public prediction of France's 1848 revolution less than one month before its eruption.9 Despite this astonishing record, few modern social scientists and political theorists have been enticed to wonder why Tocqueville was so successful in foretelling future events. However important, this question is not easy to answer. In understanding why Tocqueville could predict so well, one must reconstruct carefully (1) how Tocqueville conceptualized

Epistemology · Political science · Philosophy · Political Theory and Influence

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