Betting and the 1997 British General Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6353777 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Martin Rosenbaum |
| Year | 1999 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 9-14 |
| Publication date | 1999-02-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0032-3268 • E-ISSN: 1467-9256 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1111/1467-9256.00080 |
| OpenAlex | W2053874081 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 2 |
How good are political gamblers and bookmakers at predicting election results? In 1997, despite indications from polls, betting markets badly underestimated Labour's Parliamentary majority. But the same applies to a panel of expert ‘pundits’ and the public generally. The predictions of punters move reasonably in line with pundits and public. And the betting industry scores better when examining percentage vote share. It was close to getting this right, narrowly beating the pundits and all the pollsters. Punters were right to believe polls overstated Labour's percentage lead, but wrong to miss the fact that differential swing would boost its Commons majority
Commons · Differential (mechanical device · Economics · Federal election · General election · House of Commons · Political science · Politics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Engineering · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Housing Market and Economics · Law
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |