Dynamics in Partisanship during American Presidential Campaigns
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6368149 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Corwin D Smidt (0000-0002-4760-1087, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 78 |
| Issue | S1 |
| Pages | 303-329 |
| Publication date | 2014-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Public Opinion Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-362X • E-ISSN: 1537-5331 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/poq/nfu014 |
| OpenAlex | W2018843801 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 30 |
Despite their potential importance, little is known about the nature and prevalence of party identification dynamics within American presidential campaigns. This study reviews existing research to propose three basic contrasting models. It then introduces multivariate state space methods that account for sampling error and survey design effects to evaluate each model’s relative support within daily national survey data of the 1984, 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential campaigns. The results indicate that the balance of party identifiers had near-certain changes during three of the four campaigns, with campaign events often being associated with these changes. These findings suggest that polls and analyses that fail to allow for sudden shifts in party identifications will mask changes in public opinion. More generally, the findings demonstrate that campaigns shape party coalitions on Election Day, and possibly thereafter
Dynamics (music · Identification (biology · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Public opinion · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Media Influence and Politics · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies · Psychology · Law
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Estimation across Data Sets
Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable
Reexamining the "Minimal Effects" Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns
Question Wording and Partisanship
Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics
The Dynamics of Party Identification Reconsidered
Carryover Effects in Attitude Surveys
Tracking Opinion over Time
A Party of a Different Color? Race, Campaign Communication, and Party Politics
Estimating Dynamic Models Using Kalman Filtering
Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability
The Decline of Parties in the Minds of Citizens
Voter Decision Making in Election 2000
Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996
Measuring Change in Party Identification in an Election Campaign
Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate
Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study
The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidates
The Instability of Partisanship
The 2000 US Presidential Election
Just Weight! The Case for Dynamic Party Identification Weighting
The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship
Politics Matters
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,22 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2022 (6) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |