The Long Shadow of the Big Lie

How Beliefs about the Legitimacy of the 2020 Election Spill Over onto Future Elections

Bibliographic Data

ID6368658
AuthorsMatthew Levendusky (0000-0003-3295-1276, University of Pennsylvania), Sheila Patterson (0000-0002-2377-5509, Research Analyst, Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania , Philadelphia, PA), Michele F Margolis (0000-0003-2466-9553), Michele Margolis (University of Pennsylvania), Yotam Ophir (0000-0001-5049-7906, University at Buffalo, State University of New York), Dror Walter (0000-0001-9870-998X, Georgia State University), Kathleen Hall Jamieson (0000-0002-4167-3688, Elizabeth Ware Packard Professor in the Annenberg School for Communication, and Director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania , Philadelphia, PA)
Year2024
Volume88
Issue3
Pages933-961
Publication date2024-11-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePublic Opinion Quarterly (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0033-362X • E-ISSN: 1537-5331
PublisherOxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1093/poq/nfae047
OpenAlexW4403951699
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited16

Has the “big lie”—the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump—shaped citizens’ views of the legitimacy of other US elections? We argue that it has. Those who believe Trump’s claim, whom we call election skeptics, lack confidence in elections for two interrelated reasons. First, because they think 2020 was inaccurately and unfairly conducted, they think that other elections will suffer a similar fate, and hence think these elections are illegitimate even before any votes are cast. Second, while most voters think elections are less legitimate when their preferred candidate loses, this effect will be especially large for election skeptics, because voter fraud gives them a mechanism to explain their candidate’s loss. Using an original panel dataset spanning the 2020 and 2022 elections, we show strong support for these hypotheses. This has important implications for our elections, and their legitimacy, moving forward

Legitimacy · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Psychoanalysis · Shadow (psychology · Sociology · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Psychology · Social Media and Politics · Law · Public Administration · Social Psychology

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