Assessing the middle-income trap in post-Soviet countries
Evidence from unit root tests
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6431793 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Nijat Gasim (0000-0002-3976-1283), Shahriyar Mukhtarov (0000-0001-6248-6120), Galib Gafarli (0000-0002-2292-2896), Farid Jabiyev (0000-0002-6675-0264) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 156-178 |
| Publication date | 2025-03-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2071-8330 • E-ISSN: 2306-3483 |
| Publisher | Centre of Sociological Research, NGO (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.14254/2071-8330.2025/18-1/10 |
| OpenAlex | W4409244537 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 36 |
This study investigates whether post-Soviet countries are caught in the middle-income trap, using the Robertson and Ye (2013) approach. A comprehensive set of unit root tests was employed, including traditional tests (ADF), nonlinear tests (KSS, Kruse, Sollis), and advanced Fourier-based tests (FKPSS, FF-ADF, FADF, FKSS, FKruse, FSollis) to analyze the data spanning from 1990 to 2023. The results revealed a significant heterogeneity in convergence patterns across the countries. It can be concluded that Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia exhibited stationarity in most tests, indicating that these countries are in the middle-income trap. In contrast, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Ukraine displayed non-stationary results, suggesting that they are not in the trap and are converging toward higher income levels. In addition, the radar chart, coefficient of variation, and three different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques (Equal Weight Score, Discrimination Weighted Score, and Entropy Weighted Score) were used for robustness check. The results of these tests appear to be consistent with the outcomes of the unit root tests
Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Linguistics · Mathematics education · Middle income trap · Political science · Root (linguistics · Trap (plumbing · Unit (ring theory · Unit root · Economic Growth and Productivity · Economic Theory and Policy · Environmental Science · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Psychology · Law · Philosophy
A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks
A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks
Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework
Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root
Escaping the middle-income trap
Convergence of economic growth and health expenditures in OECD countries
The impact of institutional quality on economic growth
The relationship between public debt and economic growth
An Overview and Evaluation of Composite Indices of Development
Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects
| Citations per year | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |