A System Dynamics Approach to Concession Period Optimization in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6446903 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gabriel Castelblanco (0000-0001-6820-6644, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA, corresponding author), Arianna De Marco (0000-0002-4145-2287, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy), Carter B Casady (0000-0001-9215-7168, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 292-325 |
| Publication date | 2025-01-10 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Public Works Management & Policy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1087-724X • E-ISSN: 1552-7549 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1087724x251314427 |
| OpenAlex | W4406256416 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 64 |
The success of public-private partnerships (PPPs) often depends on the duration of a project’s concession period. Although experts have invested considerable efforts into optimizing these periods, few have examined the complex, interactive effects of project-specific risks and bankability criteria on concession durations. To overcome this gap, this study develops a System Dynamics (SD) model that allows decision-makers to estimate the optimal concession period terms based on causal interactions between a project’s main risks and bankability. The model is applied using data from recent PPPs in Italy. The results show variable interest rates, inflation, operational expenditures (OPEX), and debt repayment mechanisms all uniquely impact the concession period
Actuarial science · Business · Debt · Duration (music · Economics · General partnership · Inflation (cosmology · Project finance · Public–private partnership · Auction Theory and Applications · Public-Private Partnership Projects · Urban Planning and Valuation · Finance
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| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |