Economic Conditions and National Elections, Post-Sample Forecasts of the Kramer Equations

Bibliographic Data

ID7247649
AuthorsH Sönmez Ateşoğlu (Clarkson College), Roger D Congleton (0000-0002-3637-718X, Clarkson College), Roger Congleton
Year1982
Volume76
Issue4
Pages873-875
Publication date1982-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Political Science Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.2307/1962978
OpenAlexW4244123412
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited3

There has long been a division of opinion among economists concerning the effects of economic developments on voting behavior. In his well-known study, Kramer (1971a) concluded that the fluctuations in economic activity have a systematic influence on U.S. congressional elections. His findings were challenged by various economists, including Stigler (1973). The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of Kramer's results by examining the post-sample forecast performance of his models. As noted by Christ (1966, pp. 546–49), the acid test of a time series model is its ability to perform well outside the sample period. The results discussed below demonstrate that Kramer's equations have relatively good post-sample predictive ability. The findings thus support the view that short-term economic fluctuations have important effects on national elections. However, the results also suggest that economic factors alone are not sufficient to account for all variations of voter behavior

Econometrics · Economics · Period (music · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Sample (material · Term (time · Test (biology · Voting · Voting behavior · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Philosophy · Psychology

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