Lost in a Gallup

With the winner still in doubt, the day after the 2020 presidential election, David A. Graham called the “clear loser ...: polling” (“The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy,” Atlantic, Nov. 4, 2020). Such a statement would scarcely surprise W. Joseph Campbell. His latest book, Lost in a Gallup, traces several polling “fiascoes” in U.S. presidential elections, from the infamous 1936 Literary Digest and 1948 miscalls to the failed predictions of 2016 (p. 4). This extensively researched and engagingly written volume profiles early pioneers of polling such as George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and Archibald Crossley, as well as later pollsters and analysts such as John Zogby and Nate Silver, highlighting their contributions, missteps, and not infrequent competitiveness and hubris. Yet Campbell's focus is “the intriguing, intricate, and sometimes exasperating interplay” between polling and journalism, anchored in shared values of accuracy and timeliness (p. 4). Both contend with the needs of keeping public interest, sustaining trust, adapting to changing technologies, and responding to market dynamics

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