Quality of U.S. Decision Making during the Cuban Missile Crisis
Major Errors in Welch's Reassessment
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7312949 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gregory M Herek (City University of New York), Irving L Janis (University of California, Berkeley), Paul Huth (University of Michigan) |
| Year | 1989 |
| Volume | 33 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 446-459 |
| Publication date | 1989-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002789033003004 |
| OpenAlex | W1525233310 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 11 |
| References cited | 6 |
Obviously, the conclusions from any systematic investigation of historic crises may require modification when new information becomes available. In the previous article, David Welch claims that new information about the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the most thoroughly documented of the 19 crises in our study of the relationship between decisionmaking and outcome (Herek et al., 1987), casts doubts on our findings. Further, he questions the main conclusions of our entire study, not only on the basis of this new evidence but also because our conception of a high-quality decision making process (embodied in our definitions of the symptoms of defective decision making) is seriously flawed (p. 432). Are his claims warranted? At first glance, Welch's article might seem convincing to some readers; it seems sensible as well as sophisticated. But such favorable impressions, we believe, cannot survive detailed scrutiny of the veracity of his assertions concerning both our article and the new evidence he describes. In this rebuttal, we shall explain why Welch's claims are wrong by documenting two major types of errors that permeate his entire critique. Unfortunately, we cannot be brief. We feel it necessary to point out many misleading oversimplifications and misrepresentations in Welch's article that must be corrected both to assess the relationship between and outcome reported in our paper and to extract
Crisis management · Epistemology · Missile · Operations research · Political science · Quality (philosophy · Aerospace Engineering · Engineering · Intelligence, Security, War Strategy · Law · Nuclear Issues and Defense
Deterrence Now
Historiometric Methods in Social Psychology
Foreign Policy Analysis
Decision‐making during international crises
Experts and Decision Makers in Crisis Situations
Out of the Lab and into the Archives
The Nixon Administration and Middle East Crises
Irving L. Janis' Victims of Groupthink
Antecedents of Groupthink
The Integrative Complexity of American Decision Makers in The Cuban Missile Crisis
Avoiding Catastrophe
| Unique citing works | 11 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,31 |
| Citation span | 1991 - 2011 (21) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 11 |