A Model for Right-Wing Populist Electoral Success
Anti-Immigrant Sentiment and the AfD in Comparative Perspective
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7360735 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Wolfgang Muno (0000-0001-8465-3954, University of Rostock, corresponding author), Daniel Stockemer (0000-0003-3502-6828, Ottawa University) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 25-56 |
| Publication date | 2021-03-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Populism (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2588-8072 • E-ISSN: 2588-8064 |
| Publisher | Brill (PUBLISHER • NL) |
| DOI | 10.1163/25888072-bja10014 |
| OpenAlex | W3134457728 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 5 |
| References cited | 26 |
This article adds to the large literature on right-wing populist parties ( RWPP ), explaining how anti-immigrant sentiments become salient for vote choice. Within the large literature on RWPP , anti-immigration attitudes are the most important variable to explain the vote share of RWPP . Yet, recent research shows that there is not always an empirical effect between having anti-immigrant attitudes and voting for the RWPP . In this article, we develop a theoretical model that explains the conditions under which anti-immigration attitudes matter. We then test this model based on the case of the AfD in Germany, a typical case for a right-wing populist party exploiting anti-immigrant sentiment. Focusing on the AfD in Germany, we illustrate that the refugee crisis in 2015 in combination with a perception of high government unresponsiveness to stop the crisis provided the structural conditions necessary to activate latent anti-immigration sentiment among large parts of the population. Using a structural analysis and individual panel data for Germany’s general elections in 2013 and 2017, we find that immigration critical attitudes were already present among parts of the population in 2013 but immigration was a secondary topic in the 2013 election, even among AfD voters. Due to the immigration crisis in 2015, immigration became a salient topic. The combination of a perceived external crisis or shock combined with a perceived government’s unresponsiveness quickly offered a winning formula for the AfD. A probability probe for two other countries (Sweden and Italy) with different contexts also show salience for the model
Demographic economics · Economics · Government (linguistics · Immigration · Immigration policy · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Population · Populism · Salience (neuroscience · Salient · Sociology · Voting · Demography · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Psychology
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| Unique citing works | 5 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,25 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 5 |