The Baltic region as a ‘grey zone

The article analyses the Baltic region as an arena of intensified Russia—West confrontation, applying the ‘grey zone’ concept understood as a domain where traditional military threats intersect with hybrid forms of influence. The authors examine the factors contributing to the escalation of tension in the region, including militarisation, economic sanctions, information pressure, and the use of proxy instruments. Particular attention is given to the geographical and legal conditions shaping strategic instability, as well as to historical precedents, most notably World War II, which, in the authors’ view, helps contextualise contemporary risks. The article outlines the methods used by NATO and the Baltic States in constructing the ‘grey zone’, including the expansion of military presence, the manipulation of legal frameworks, and the deployment of non-military instruments of pressure. The authors conclude that the Baltic region is approaching the threshold of open conflict, and Western policies are interpreted as efforts to constrain Russian influence without resorting to direct military engagement. The study employs comparative analysis, qualitative content analysis of key sources, and event analysis of the actions of EU and NATO member states to assess perceived threats and the dynamics of regional instability

Armed conflict · Baltic sea · Geopolitics · International relations · Member states · Military deployment · Software deployment · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · Global Political and Economic Relations · Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation

• Spatial characteristics of economic security for enclave (exclave) territories

  Open Access•K Yu Voloshenko, I A Mayburov•Baltic Region•2026

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