Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods

Bibliographic Data

ID7743932
AuthorsMichael Lachanski (0000-0001-7571-6167, University City Science Center, corresponding author)
Year2023
Volume49
Issue33
Pages865-904
Publication date2023-11-16
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueDemographic Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1435-9871 • E-ISSN: 2363-7064
PublisherMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.4054/demres.2023.49.33
PMID40832619
OpenAlexW4388687541
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited50

BACKGROUND: The distribution of job tenure plays an important role in demography, economics, and sociology. Job tenure in a labor market is analogous to age in a population. Demographers have used indirect methods based on variable-r methods to estimate parameters for life table models. The variable-r method can also be employed to estimate the parameters of a job tenure table model that yields the expected length of job tenure and related measures. METHODS AND DATA: Only two retrospective surveys of current employee tenure lengths and a count of between-survey hires are required to estimate the parameters of a period tenure table using the variable-r method. Tenure-specific sources of decrement allow an analyst to estimate the parameters of multiple-decrement tenure tables and associated single-decrement tenure tables that isolate the proximate contribution of a specific decrement to the job separation process. I illustrate and evaluate the method using publicly available US data. RESULTS: Variable-r methods generated reasonable parameter estimates: The expected job tenure was 2.48 years at 2002-2004 decrement rates. Multiple-decrement methods can estimate the fraction of employment relationships that end via job displacement. Cause-deleted tenure tables can capture the static effect of eliminating a particular risk to the population of employment relationships. CONTRIBUTION: Arthur and Vaupel (1984) provide a framework for studying nonstable populations that subsume the variable-r relations that I utilize in this work. Vaupel had an interest in formal demography throughout his life but started his academic career in business statistics. This paper combines those interests

Econometrics · Economics · Estimation · Management · Sociology · Statistics · Demography · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality · Mathematics · Retirement, Disability, and Employment

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