Using Data Combination of Fundamental Variable-Based Forecasts and Poll-Based Forecasts to Predict the 2013 German Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 7785383 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Theresa Küntzler (corresponding author) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 25-43 |
| Publication date | 2018-01-02 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | German Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0964-4008 • E-ISSN: 1743-8993 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/09644008.2017.1280781 |
| OpenAlex | W291108311 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 20 |
In this paper I present an election forecasting approach to predict the vote share of the governing coalition in German national elections. The model is composed of two independent prediction components: the first is based on poll data, the second on fundamental variables. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages when used in isolation. The basic idea is to use both and find a better informed overall forecast. The predictions are combined using a shrinkage estimator, where the predictions are weighted by their respective prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of the poll prediction is modelled time-dependent. The result is a dynamic model allowing for predictions longer before the elections highly relying on fundamental variables. With the elections coming closer predictions rely more and more on the polling data
Econometrics · Economics · Estimator · German · Polling · Statistics · Variable (mathematics · Computer Science · Data Analysis with R · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Mathematics · Sports Analytics and Performance
Forecasting elections in Europe
Election Forecasting
Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable
Polls and the Vote in Britain
Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election Forecasts
A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking
German Election Forecasting
Pooling the polls over an election campaign
Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States
A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections
Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election
Forecasting in a Polarized Era
Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times
From polls to votes to seats
| Citations per year | 0.25 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2018 - 2022 (5) |
| Highly cited | No |