The European Union's Climate and Environmental Policy in Times of Geopolitical Crisis

European Union (EU) environmental policy is made in the framework of a multiannual Environment Action Programme (EAP), which rests on the principles of prevention, precaution and tackling pollution at its source rather than at the 'end of the pipe'. The current, 8th EAP defines objectives for environmental policy in the narrow sense as measures to prevent, reduce or end adverse effects on nature and natural resources but recognises that environmental policy objectives must go hand in hand with reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is the main goal of EU climate policy. The EAP's integrated view on environmental and climate policy resonates with the one put forth by the European Green Deal (EGD). This is the EU's approach to delivering on the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals adopted in the same year (Koundouri et al., 2021). It is a comprehensive strategy for sustainable growth and goes beyond the classic dimensions of sustainability, as it covers economic viability, environmental protection and social equity (Bongardt and Torres, 2022). The EGD guides policy action in the strategic fields of agriculture and food, construction and renovation, climate, energy, environment, financial and regional development, industry, research and innovation, and transport and mobility to achieve the overarching goal of transforming Europe into a climate-neutral continent by 2050 (Koundouri et al., 2021; Oberthür and von Homeyer, 2023; von Homeyer et al., 2022). von Homeyer et al. (2022) have analysed how the elements of the EGD related to climate policy have been implemented in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The present review builds on their analysis but adopts a complementary lens, assessing how environment- and climate-related elements of the EGD have been implemented in 2022 and in the first half of 2023. The literature has argued that in the years following the financial and economic crisis beginning in 2008, the number of EU environmental policy proposals dropped, suggesting that the 'great recession' had an adverse impact on policy ambition (Burns et al., 2020; Burns and Tobin, 2016). This finding is plausible because economic recession reduces state revenue and can therefore result in cuts of environmental budgets (Russel and Benson, 2014). Another potential mechanism for how financial and other crises affect policy-making concerns the issues that reach the political agenda. We can expect policy-makers to concentrate their attention on issues that produce a crisis or are affected by one (Skovgaard, 2014). Along this line, von Homeyer et al. (2022) contend that the implementation of the EGD's climate-related elements has been both negatively and positively affected by the war in Ukraine and its various political implications for the EU. Is EU environmental and climate policy-making resilient to geopolitical crises, such as the one triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine? And if so, which factors support this resilience in the policy processes? These two research questions guide this review article, which unfolds as follows. The next sections present the actions taken by the EU decision-making bodies in the fields of climate and environmental policy as well as energy policy. Then the review discusses the empirical picture obtained against the expectation that this event had implications for policy-making. The final section concludes. The EU Commission was active in proposing new legislation throughout 2022 and in the first half of 2023. Some of these laws were a direct response to geopolitical conflict, whereas others had been prepared earlier and aim to deliver on the EGD. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the EU Commission proposed in March 2022 the REPowerEU Plan. This plan introduced several measures to save energy, promote the production of clean energy and diversify the EU's energy supplies, with a view to phasing out fossil fuel imports from Russia and to accelerating the transition to clean energy (von Homeyer et al., 2022). As another direct response to the war, the Commission proposed a 'Save Gas for a Safe Winter' initiative in July and an emergency market intervention to reduce energy bills for Europeans in September. The 'Save Gas for a Safe Winter' proposal foresaw a new Council Regulation to provide a legal framework for long-term and geographically diffuse disruptions of energy systems. It requested all member states to reduce gas demand by 15% between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023. The Commission's proposal for reducing energy prices was facilitated by the REPowerEU Plan, the Communication released in May 2022 on short-term market interventions and long-term improvements to the electricity market design, and the Energy Prices Toolbox, which was expanded in spring 2022 and comprises short- and long-term measures, such as investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency. In December 2022, the European Parliament and the Council agreed on new rules for emissions trading in the aviation sector as part the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). This was an important step towards the EGD's goal of a 90% reduction (relative to the levels in 1990) in transport emissions by 2050. The deal was not easy to achieve, as the member states' governments had been keen to shield the aviation sector from stricter rules (Schmidt et al., 2022). The aviation sector has been part of the EU ETS since 2012, but the updated rules will entail some significant changes, including the phaseout of the free allowances by 2026. In the same month, EU policy-makers also agreed on strengthening and expanding the EU ETS to additional sectors – such as, most importantly, shipping – and to create a Social Climate Fund to support people in the transition to a low-carbon economy. In February 2023, the Commission set out rules for renewable hydrogen and proposed a zero-emissions target for new city buses by 2030 and 90% emissions reductions for new trucks by 2040. The Commission made its first proposal to promote hydrogen as a clean energy source in December 2021. Hydrogen has featured prominently in the EU's approach to decarbonise its economy because of its various desirable features. In theory, it can store surplus renewables power when the grid's absorptive capacity is exceeded, replace fossil fuels as a clean feedstock in chemicals and fuel production and facilitate the decarbonisation of hard-to-electrify sectors (van Renssen, 2020). In March 2023, Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen made an effort to promote hydrogen by proposing a European Hydrogen Bank, which would create investment security and business opportunities for both European and global renewable hydrogen production. This move aligns with other steps the EU Commission and individual member states have taken to promote hydrogen at the international level, such as in the framework of the Clean Energy Ministerial or Mission Innovation (Tosun et al., 2023). In March 2023, the European Parliament and the Council agreed to reform and strengthen the Energy Efficiency Directive. The revised Directive requires member states to take energy efficiency into consideration in policy, planning and major investment decisions in the energy sector. It defines an EU energy efficiency target of 11.7% for 2030, which exceeds the target of the 'Fit for 55' legislative package presented in July 2021. Another noteworthy feature of the proposed revision of the Directive is that it includes the first ever EU definition of energy poverty, which has long been an important issue for energy consumers, especially in Central and Eastern Europe (Jiglau et al., 2020), and therefore represents significant progress in addressing the social aspects of the transition process. Despite the policy action taken at the EU level, the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, revealed that the EU's climate policy was indeed affected by the war. The Executive Vice-President of the EU Commission, Frans Timmermans, stated that the EU increased its share of electricity from coal-fired power plants in order to replace Russian gas and overcome the energy crisis and that this could go on for the next 3 years (Reuters, 2022). COP27 did produce a breakthrough on 'loss and damage', as the representatives agreed to launch a damage fund for vulnerable countries, but the EU was left disappointed over the unexpectedly small funding base and the lack of political will to go beyond the GHG emissions reductions target set at COP26 (Euractiv, 2022b). The EU was amongst the parties that exerted pressure here, as it did not wish for others to downplay the need for cutting GHG emissions (Pflieger, 2023). Nonetheless, COP27 did not result in notable progress in mitigating climate change. Progress on mitigation may be made by a 'climate club' launched by Germany just before the end of its Group of 7 presidency in December 2022 (European Parliament, 2023a). Already existent climate clubs, such as the Clean Energy Ministerial and Mission Innovation, have shown that such formats facilitate sustained collaboration and produce tangible results (see Tosun et al., 2023). Compared with climate policy, the corpus of EU environmental policy is more extensive. It revolves around the topics enshrined in the 8th EAP, which entered into force in May 2022 and will guide the EU's policy agenda until 2030. Being closely aligned with the EGD, the current EAP pursues six priority objectives: (i) the reduction of GHG gas emissions, (ii) enhancement of the EU's adaptative capacity to climate change, (iii) the decoupling of economic growth from resource use and environmental degradation (mostly by realising a circular economy), (iv) zero pollution of air, water and soil, (v) the protection, preservation and restoration of biodiversity and (vi) the reduction of environmental and climate pressures related to production and consumption. The political process that produced the current EAP predates the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Then in April 2022, despite the unfavourable political context and before even the current EAP entered into force, the Commission presented a proposal for tightening the rules on industrial emissions and for reducing fluorinated GHGs and ozone-depleting substances in an attempt to meet the EAP's targets. Furthermore, in July 2022, the Commission adopted a list of headline indicators to monitor the EU's progress towards the EAP goals. For climate change mitigation, adaptation to climate change, the realisation of a circular economy, zero pollution and biodiversity, the Commission chose two to three policy-relevant and statistically robust indicators for each. For the objective of reducing environmental and climate pressures, five indicators will measure progress in the transformation in energy, industry, mobility and food systems. The monitoring regime will also assess the main enabling conditions, covering, for example, sustainable finance and the phaseout of environmentally harmful subsidies (European Commission, 2022a). A major advance in environmental policy can be seen in the proposal for a Nature Restoration Law (NRL), which the Commission presented in June 2022 as a key element of the EU's Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (European Commission, 2022d). This Law, which technically speaking is a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council, aims to restore nature, repair 80% of European habitats that are in poor condition and bring back nature to all ecosystems. It would establish legally binding targets for nature restoration in different ecosystems. Twenty per cent of the land and sea areas shall be covered by 2030 with nature restoration measures, with the long-term goal of covering all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050. On the same day, the Commission also proposed modifications to the existing Directive on the Sustainable Use of Pesticides and to transform it into a Regulation, which is directly applicable in all member states. The proposal puts forth legally binding targets at the EU and national levels to reduce by 50% the use and the risk of chemical pesticides and the use of the more hazardous pesticides by 2030. Furthermore, it aims to institute a ban on all pesticides in sensitive areas, including public areas and protected areas in accordance with Natura 2000 and any ecologically sensitive area to be preserved for threatened pollinators (European Commission, 2022d). The Commission's actions to protect nature and reverse the degradation of ecosystems were complemented in November 2022 by the proposed implementation of stronger measures against wildlife trafficking and in January 2023 by a proposal for revising the EU Pollinators Initiative. The EU Pollinators Initiative of 2018 established the goals of improving scientific knowledge on pollinator decline, its causes and consequences; encouraging pollinator conservation; addressing the causes of pollinator decline; mobilising society; and promoting strategic planning and co-operation. The Commission's 'New Deal for Pollinators' builds on the 2018 initiative but addresses gaps identified in it by the Commission's own review team and by the European Court of Auditors. In a special report, the European Court of Auditors recommended the addition of specific measures to address threats not considered in the current initiative, to better integrate actions for protecting wild pollinators in EU biodiversity conservation and agricultural policies and to enhance the protection of wild pollinators from pesticides (European Commission, 2023). Along these lines, the revised initiative will, for example, ask the member states to establish systems to ensure that professional users of plant protection products implement integrated pest management. In October 2022, the Commission proposed stronger rules on ambient air, surface and groundwater pollutants and advocated the treatment of urban wastewater as a means of advancing the EGD's ambition of having an environment free of harmful pollution by 2050 (European Commission, 2022b). These measures were complemented by a proposal in November 2022 for new Euro 7 standards for cars, vans and heavy commercial vehicles to reduce pollutant emissions and improve air quality. In May 2023, the Council gave final approval to the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation, which was proposed by the Commission in November 2021. The Regulation sets mandatory due diligence rules for companies registered in EU member states that import or export palm oil, cattle, wood, coffee, cocoa, rubber or soy to ensure that these agricultural commodities have not been produced on land deforested after 31 December 2020. The scope of the Regulation also applies to several derived products, such as furniture and printed paper. It creates a benchmarking system that assigns a level of risk related to deforestation and forest degradation to countries within and outside the EU. Commodities designated as 'high risk' will face tougher scrutiny, and the EU will enhance its co-operation with the countries from which they originate. The Regulation also requires companies to ensure the agricultural commodities covered are produced in conditions that comply with additional 'relevant laws' in their country of origin, such as legislation protecting human rights. Finally, the Regulation foresees penalties when its stipulations are violated (Council of the European Union, 2023a). Despite the policy actions described above, there is evidence to suggest that the war in Ukraine has had an impact on EU environmental policy-making. Most importantly, whilst the Commission wishes to be perceived as a leader in reducing the use of pesticides, the member states have been sceptical of these plans considering the adverse impact of the war on food security. In fact, they have formally requested a new impact assessment of the reduction plans on food production (Euractiv, 2022a). An unprecedented level of opposition experienced the NRL in the European Parliament. Instead of asking for amendments to the Commission's proposal, the members of three parliamentary committees affiliated with the European People's Party (EPP), with 176 members the largest political group in the European Parliament, withdrew from the negotiations and asked the Commission to present an entirely new proposal. The chair of the EPP, Manfred Weber, justified the group's rejection of the proposal by depicting it as a jeopardy to the EU's food system, the farmers' livelihoods and global food supplies in times of war in Ukraine (Politico, 2023). On 11 July 2023, after months of controversy, the proposal for the NRL passed the European Parliament in a knife-edge vote with 324 votes in favour, 312 votes against and 12 abstentions. The European Parliament will now enter in negotiations with the Council on the final shape of the legislation. Another effect concerns the Regulation for the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH), which should have been revised about a year ago and is now scheduled for the last quarter of 2023. Commentators see the reason for this delay in the adverse effects of the war on the chemical industry in Germany, the largest and most powerful EU member state (Euractiv, 2023a). In fact, several politicians have expressed concerns over the prospective regulatory burdens on the industry stemming from stricter environmental protection standards. Most notably, in May 2023, the French President Emanuel Macron suggested 'a European regulatory pause' (Euractiv, 2023b), which would have resulted in the current measures on climate change and environmental protection being implemented and 'digested' by the industry before new ones are added. Overall, despite the geopolitical crisis in 2022 and 2023, the Commission has taken policy actions for delivering on the environment-related aspects of the EGD and the priority objectives enshrined therein. The policy actions taken have focused on biodiversity and the EU's contribution to global deforestation and forest degradation, for it is one of the major consumers of commodities for which agricultural land is being expanded. Nonetheless, the policy actions have also addressed various types of environmental pollution by defining stricter regulatory standards for them. The literature on crisis management has long wrestled with the concept of 'resilience', as there is no consensus in the literature on how it is defined nor on how it can be achieved (Boin and Lodge, 2016). This review defines resilience in policy-making as a process that absorbs shocks and continues to operate as usual. It contends that both internal and external factors resulted in a continuation of the climate and environmental policy processes that had started before the war in Ukraine. The main external factor refers to the EU's aspiration to be perceived as an international leader in environmental and climate policy et al., which has been an important of the Commission's proposals on The to the United Nations Convention on was held in from 7 to December As stated by the Commission this event a key in its policy as it to the negotiations on a Biodiversity The Commission for this to be adopted at with by in biodiversity and nature (European Commission, 2022d). It also to the international to overcome opposition to its plans by the member states. the Commission to the NRL and to the Regulation on the the for and stated that the political between the EU Parliament and the Council the of the global for the protection of would 'a to the of the that it is to address global deforestation that to the climate crisis and the of natural (European Commission, was a to the that it in the of the Biodiversity which sets out global targets for action until 2030. These to reduce threats to biodiversity, meet sustainable use and and provide and for implementation and The at the aligns with the EU's and support for the Commission, which the member states before the because of its plans for a reduction in the use of pesticides (Euractiv, 2022a). of the European Parliament also to the Biodiversity Framework the vote on the The in support of the Commission's proposal stated that its would be in order to meet the EU's international (European Parliament, The tightening of the regulatory standards for than can also be related to the EU's as an environmental leader and the that its regulatory approach was than the international defined by the et al., 2021). As for the EU is keen to its regulatory standards with of international as this the of its own In its the Commission that its revision would more closely EU regulatory standards with international ones (European Commission, which the in 2021. The internal factors resilient policy-making to the increased public of biodiversity and demand for policy The of this issue when the European Initiative 'Save and out in and 2022, in the number of to be to a in the European Parliament (Tosun et al., 2022). The proposed revision of the Pollinators Initiative is the EU Commission's policy response to the of 'Save and (European Commission, 2023). the the Commission to the Conference on the of Europe and its final report, in which requested measures addressing the use and risk of pesticides, to its action (European Commission, 2022d). factors are to the a policy measure or to potential new to these the and knowledge on the effects of pollutants and their the policy process for the rules on air and water in the proposal of revised standards. This in the of the updated list of water which are to have harmful effects on nature and human These a of pesticides and degradation products, such as the active (European Commission, 2022b). the of environmental and climate as enshrined in the EGD (Koundouri et al., creates new opportunities for policy-making. For example, the Commission its proposal for revising the Directive on the that it would wastewater treatment more and the of and it also the wastewater potential for renewable energy as a that it would be to take policy action to achieve the EU's climate-related policy objective (European Commission, 2022b). EU policy-makers have been and climate and environmental policies different types of crises for more than a The on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the energy crises, has affected some policy-making whilst others have to be For policy-makers have measures to the security of energy which has the EU's to promoting renewable energy also resulted in more Nonetheless, the EU Commission has taken policy actions climate change and environmental biodiversity, different factors have resulted in resilient policy The Commission its wish to by at the to the United Nations Convention on suggesting that EU policies are by the EU's ambition to be perceived as an international leader et al., In biodiversity has a issue amongst EU the Commission to stricter rules on use and measures for and protecting of the of environmental and climate with new scientific have sustained the for new standards for air and water even in times of geopolitical the assessment of the climate and environmental policy-making the in – as – on the approach and the level of empirical For example, Burns et al. out an analysis of the of environmental policy measures that a of and more in order to assess there has been an impact of the economic and financial The approach adopted focused on policy actions in 2022 and the first half of 2023. It is also because most of the policy actions covered of proposals made by the Commission that are by the European Parliament and the Council, by implementation by the member states. This review to some policy in which the member states the European Parliament have the of the policy proposals may be to modifications made in the of the policy process. will be the negotiations between the European Parliament and the Council over the NRL that it was by the The approach the Council adopted on the NRL that the final Regulation, if will from the Commission's proposal, for example, the of the member states in the implementation of the rules (Council of the European Union, the final shape of the NRL represents a of in July 2023, the Commission proposed a new legal framework for plants obtained by and and for their food and products, to a new to meet the reduction goals. In the several members have been of – it to be seen how they will on produced by such it will be important to assess the EU on climate and environmental policy will change if the war in Ukraine

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