The Myths of Turkish Influence in the European Union

Dados Bibliográficos

ID7877048
AutoresRobert Pahre (University of Illinois System), Burcu Ucaray-Mangitli (0000-0003-1115-4462, University of Illinois System), BURCU UÇARAY‐MANGITLI
Ano2009
Volume47
Fascículo2
Páginas357-384
Data de publicação2009-03-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJCMS Journal of Common Market Studies (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0021-9886 • E-ISSN: 1468-5965
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1468-5965.2009.00808.x
OpenAlexW2171205695
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas6
Referências citadas52

Among the many objections to Turkish membership of the European Union lie claims that Turkey will be a powerful actor in the future EU, with a population as large as or larger than Germany. Many also claim that this power will have negative effects on the EU. We examine such claims analytically, influenced strongly by spatial models of EU policy‐making. We find that Turkey's preferences lie sufficiently outside the EU mainstream that it will have little influence in day‐to‐day policy‐making under the assent, co‐decision, consultation and co‐operation procedures (or the common procedure in the Constitutional Treaty). Its influence may be more evident in areas such as the CFSP or JHA, where unanimity remains the normal procedure. Still, Turkey's veto power here is no different from that of other, much smaller countries. Furthermore, veto power can only block changes and cannot be used to pull the EU in undesirable new directions. Even this veto power can be avoided if the EU‐27 establish whatever policies they desire prior to Turkish membership, forcing Turkey to accept a fait accompli . Despite these limitations to its power, Turkey may have some influence in purely intergovernmental settings such as negotiations over new treaties that might occur some decades hence

Economics · European union · International economics · Law and economics · Mainstream · Negotiation · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Population · Power (physics · Sociology · Treaty · Turkish · Unanimity · Veto · Demography · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · European Union Policy and Governance · Law · Political Systems and Governance