The expected prospects for peace in northern Ireland
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8098086 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Bruce Bueno De Mesquita (0000-0001-8582-8330, Hoover Institution, corresponding author), Rose Mcdermott (0000-0002-0920-1541, Cornell University), Emily A Cope (Cornell University), Emily Cope |
| Year | 2001 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 129-167 |
| Publication date | 2001-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Interactions (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0305-0629 • E-ISSN: 1547-7444 |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/03050620108434980 |
| OpenAlex | W2066084762 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 17 |
| References cited | 18 |
Negotiations over implementation of the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreements are used to compare predictions made by prospect theory and an expected utility model. The ex ante predictions were made in May 1999 and are evaluated against developments through August 2000. The study shows that prospect theory is capable of more limited predictions than expected utility models because the latter can be imbedded in a framework that attends to strategic interaction while the former is strictly decision theoretic at this time. Prospect theory proved accurate in 40–70 percent of its predictions, depending on how one interprets the meaning of “implementation.” The expected utility model proved accurate in 100 percent of the issues evaluated here
Decision theory · Economics · Epistemology · Ex-ante · Expected utility hypothesis · Macroeconomics · Mathematical economics · Meaning (existential · Microeconomics · Negotiation · Political science · Positive economics · Prospect theory · Disaster Management and Resilience · Irish and British Studies · Law · Philosophy
Game Theory, Diplomatic History and Security Studies
A General Explanation of the Cuban Missile Crisis
Ripeness obscured
Prediction and its discontents
Revising the 1975 Pira ceasefire through the lens of prospect theory
Explaining British-Irish cooperation
Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes
Risk Orientations and Policy Frames
Prospect Theory in Political Science
The Prospects for Prospect Theory
Why and how do Political Actors Pursue Risky Reforms
Prospect Theory and Coercive Bargaining
Decision-Making Models, Rigor and New Puzzles
Judging Judgment
Selling the Iran Nuclear Agreement
There is No Alternative
American Diplomacy and Economic Aid in the Northern Ireland Peace Process
European Community Decision Making
Prospect Theory
Choices, values, and frames
A decision making model
Comparing rational choice and prospect theory analyses
Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem
Forecasting political events
Prospect Theory and International Relations
Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations
The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies
Forecasting Policy Decisions
Red Flag over Hong Kong
| Unique citing works | 17 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,77 |
| Citation span | 2004 - 2025 (22) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 17 |