Shifting Sands

Over the past three years, Indonesia has shifted its defence industry cooperation partners and defence technology producers to France. Indonesia agreed to purchase Rafale F4 fighter jets and Scorpene Evolved submarines from France. The procurement of Rafale F4 fighter jets represents Indonesia’s largest ever acquisition of fighter jets to date and the first purchase from France. The acquisition of Scorpene Evolved submarines marks the ending of Indonesia’s procurement of the U-209 class, which had been the favoured option and might potentially be manufactured domestically. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the reasons behind Indonesia’s shift in defence technology producer countries using the opportunity and willingness frameworks and the causal process tracing (CPT) method. This article argues that Indonesia’s shift to France is driven by the presence of opportunities in the international system, including the geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific that led France to emphasise the region and Indonesia in its foreign policy, along with the risks associated with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Furthermore, By engaging in modernising its defence technology and seeking self-sufficiency, Indonesia prioritises nations that offer the most attractive technology transfer and offset, a proposal put forth by France. Moreover, France has become one of Indonesia’s strongest partners in defence industrial cooperation to date. This result is noteworthy, as it demonstrates how external geopolitical issues and internal strategic preferences jointly affect defence procurement choices in growing middle powers like Indonesia

Competition (biology · Defence industry · Deterrence theory · Geopolitics · Process (computing · Procurement · Sanctions · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Military and Defense Studies · Minority Rights and Languages