Tracking the decline of first marriage in South Korea
Timing, quantum decline, and pandemic disruptions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8238347 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sam Hyun Yoo (0000-0003-3545-5016, Hanyang University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Pages | 71-86 |
| Publication date | 2026-01-13 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demographic Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1435-9871 • E-ISSN: 2363-7064 |
| Publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.4054/demres.2026.54.3 |
| OpenAlex | W7123352449 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 18 |
BACKGROUNDIn South Korea, where most births occur within marriage, the country's record-low fertility has put renewed attention on the long-term decline in first marriage.Despite rising policy and academic interest, systematic demographic analyses that disentangle structural and timing components of nuptiality change remain limited, especially in East Asia. OBJECTIVEThis study examines trends in the quantum and timing of first marriage in South Korea from 1993 to 2023 and assesses whether the decline reflects structural retreat, postponement, or both. METHODSUsing legally registered marriage data from the national vital statistics system, we construct three period indicators: the total first marriage rate (TFMR), the period proportion ever married (PPEM), and a tempo-adjusted PPEM (PPEM*).We estimate the never-married population using age-specific proportions from the census, applied to mid-year resident registration data.All indicators are calculated separately for men and women. RESULTSBoth TFMR and PPEM declined markedly over three decades.Among women, PPEM and PPEM* showed parallel trajectories, indicating a structural retreat from marriage.Among men, PPEM fluctuated more sharply, and its widening gap with PPEM* after 2015 reveals stronger tempo effects.The temporary convergence in 2020 reflects compositional change due to a sharp fall in international marriages during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONSThe findings reveal a sustained decline in first marriage for both sexes, with men showing lower levels and greater sensitivity to timing shifts and external disruptions. CONTRIBUTIONBy extending tempo-adjusted analysis to first marriage, this study offers new insights into nuptiality decline in East Asia's ultra-low fertility context
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Pandemic · Quantum · Tracking (education · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Work-Family Balance Challenges
Factors delaying marriage in Korea
Marriage Decline in Korea
A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Subnational variations in births and marriages during the Covid-19 pandemic in South Korea
The Gender Revolution
Pandemic Roller-Coaster? Birth Trends in Higher-Income Countries During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Re-theorizing Family Demographics
Age at marriage and proportions marrying
Timing effects on first marriage
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea
Postponement and recuperation in cohort marriage
On the tempo and quantum of first marriages in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland
Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility
Men's Marriage Trends in Asia
Women's Employment and the Gain to Marriage
Marriage and Family in East Asia
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |